{"id": "1213253817572294663", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T09:00:00Z", "msg": "804\nWTNT41 KNHC 250847\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nFay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the \nwest of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to \nthe dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite \nintensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these \nestimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nGiven warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight \nstrengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, \nvertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the \nshear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative \nhumidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The \nsystem is expected to lose deep convection once again over the \nweekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity \nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good \nagreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only \nchange to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the \nglobal models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the \ncentral Atlantic for a few more days.\n \nThe storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial \nmotion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level \nridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest \nis expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically \nshallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies \nnear the HCCA corrected consensus aid.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0900Z 29.8N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 29.7N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 29.3N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 60H  27/1800Z 29.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/0600Z 28.5N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0600Z 27.6N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}