{"id": "1213252736261488647", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T09:00:00Z", "msg": "520\nWTNT42 KNHC 250842\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nGonzalo remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with wind shear \ndisplacing the deep convection over the eastern and southern \nportions of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and \nUW-CIMSS are around 35-40 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data \ndepicting 40 kt and a steady satellite appearance, the initial \nintensity for this advisory is held at 40 kt.\n \nThe initial motion remains north-northwestward at 340/8 kt. The \nstorm is expected to continue moving north-northwestward during the \nnext couple of days, steered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough \nover the eastern Atlantic. As the trough lifts northwestward later \nin the forecast period, the steering currents will become very weak, \nand Gonzalo is forecast to slow down and meander over the eastern \nAtlantic. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over \nportions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. The official \nNHC track forecast is lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and \nGDMI aids.\n \nGonzalo has about 12 to 18 hours within a marginally conducive \nenvironment for some strengthening, with sea surface temperatures \nnear 27-28 deg C. After that time, vertical wind shear is forecast \nto increase, becoming fairly strong by day 2. Along the forecast \ntrack, sea surface temperatures will also cool, and mid-level \nrelative humidity values will begin to drop into the 50, and then \n40 percent range. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the \nprevious advisory. Global model-simulated infrared satellite imagery \ndepicts Gonzalo becoming devoid of deep convection in about 2 to 3 \ndays. Thus, the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical \nremnant low at that time, and it is expected to remain a remnant low \nthrough day 5.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions\nof the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in\neffect, today and will continue through tonight.\n \n2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo\nVerde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to\nSenegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be\npossible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash\nflood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0900Z 14.2N  22.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.4N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.0N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 18.5N  23.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.8N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  27/1800Z 20.5N  24.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/0600Z 21.0N  24.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0600Z 22.2N  25.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}