{"msg": "595\nAXNT20 KNHC 250437\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.3W at 0300 UTC,  \nmoving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak \nseas to 13 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW \nsemicircle. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of \nthe center. Some strengthening is expected overnight before \nweakening likely commences by Fri afternoon or evening. A \ngenerally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is \nexpected over the next few days.\nInvest AL90 across the far eastern Atlantic, has been named \nTropical Storm Gonzalo, forming to the south-southeast of the Cabo\nVerde Islands. Gonzalo is centered near 13.2N 22.1W at 0300 UTC, \nmoving N-NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gust \nto 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent \nsatellite scatterometer data showed that the center still remains \nsomewhat elongated but with a large fetch of 30-40 kt easterly \nwinds across the northern semicircle. Peak seas are to 14 ft \nacross this area. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong \nconvection prevails across the SE semicircle of Gonzalo from 08N \nto 17N between 16W and 25W. Tropical Storm Warnings have been \nissued for the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is expected to move \nnorth-northwestward during the next couple of days, passing near \nor over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. \nAfter about 24 hours, moderate to strong vertical wind shear and \ncooling SSTs are expected to cause a gradual weakening trend. \nGonzalo is expected to become a post tropical remnant low to the \nnorth of the Cabo Verdes by 72 hours and meander there for a few \ndays as steering currents become very weak. Heavy rains from \nGonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the \nwestern coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today \nthrough Saturday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to \nupper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level \nmoisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail \nacross this area during the next several days, and aid in \nfunneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and \nthe western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall \nthrough Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact \nlocation of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks \nlikely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern \nand central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and\neastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and \nPanama. Convection across the area has diminished in the past few \nhours, with scattered moderate isolated strong showers and \nthunderstorms extending from the Gulf of Honduras northeastward \nacross the Cayman Islands, across western Jamaica and eastern \nCuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the \npossibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 51W-52W, S of \n14W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted behind the wave, from 10N to 13.5N between 46W and 51W.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 13N \ninto central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is depicted over water in association with this wave,\nwhile numerous moderate to strong convection is observed over much\nof northern Colombia.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania and meanders west the southwestward to low pressure \nnear 13N22W, which has since become T.S. Gonzalo, then extends\nsouthwest to 10N25W to near 10N48W. There is no well defined  \nITCZ further west at this time. Scattered moderate convection is\nsouth of the monsoon trough from 07N to 09.5N between 25W and 32W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from SW Florida near Marco Islands to \nthe central Texas coast, but has recently begun to drift southward\nto the E of 90W. Widely scattered showers are occurring along the\nfrom between 86W and 90W. A more significant cold front has moved\ninto the NE Gulf, and extends from northern Tampa Bay to near\nMobile Bay. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are found north of\nthe stationary front, while fresh NE winds are spilling across \nthe Florida Bid Bend behind the cold front. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are \nfound within 120 nm N of the stationary boundary, and across the \nBig Bend. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate, \nexcept for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the \nYucatan Peninsula, where scattered thunderstorms have entered the \neastern Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, a cold front extending from Mobile Bay to the \nTampa Bay area will move southwestward and gradually merge with a\nweakening stationary front across the central Gulf, then progress\nacross the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the Straits of\nFlorida Sat before weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds \nwill follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to \nmoderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish\nslightly Sun into early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is\nexpected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nAt the surface, very weak high pressure is across the western\nAtlantic between the Bahamas and 60W. The resultant pressure \ngradient across the Caribbean is yielding moderate to fresh trades\nacross the south-central basin S of 15N and between 63W and 73W. \nSeas in these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean \nmoderate winds prevail with 3 to 4 ft seas, Elsewhere, light to \ngentle winds and slight seas prevail, except moderate seas across \nthe SW.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate\nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere through the next several days. An upper-\nlevel trough will support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. \nA mid to upper-level trough extending from the coasts of the\nCarolinas southwestward across the eastern Gulf of America has\nallowed for two frontal systems to move into the area NW Atlantic\nwaters, and also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms from\nthe Straits of Florida, across the Bahamas and northeastward\ntowards Bermuda. A stationary front extends from the Storm-force\nlow center offshore of Cape Hatteras southwestward through 31N73W\nto south Florida, followed by a reinforcing cold front across the\nNW waters along 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral. Strong N to NE \nwinds 20-30 kt are filling into the area waters behind the cold \nfront, and producing building N-NE swell moving into the waters N \nof the Bahamas and W of 65W. Local buoys show seas of 6 ft as far\nsouth as Vero Beach, Florida increasing to 13 ft near 30N80W. \nAhead of these fronts, a 1010 mb low center is located near \n27.5N76W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the area\nE of this low to 68W, and become fresh SW winds ahead of the \nstationary front and N of 30N. Seas across the area are 4 to 8 ft \nin building N swell. \n \nAnother upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N54W. This \nfeature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area \nof scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 51W and \n60W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient \ncontinues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains \ncentered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe, and drapes\nover T.S. Fay. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate \ntrades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds and seas of 3\nto 6 ft elsewhere W of 30W. However, swell generated from \nTropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 12 ft N of 28N \nbetween 40W and 45W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front from near \n31N73W to south Florida will gradually merge with the cold front\nFri and then shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to \nthe Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. \nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along \nthe frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and large N-NE swell \nwill follow the front through Fri, before beginning to subside Sat\nthrough Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213204562403557383", "issued": "2026-09-25T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213204562403557383"}