{"msg": "480\nAXPZ20 KNHC 250344\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 106.5W, or about \n170 nm southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 25/0300 UTC, moving \nmoving westward at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to \n160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft (12.5 m). Polo \ncontinues to depict an impressive presentation on satellite \nimagery, with an eye diameter of 20 nm. The imagery shows \nnumerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center, except \nwithin 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is denoted a wide band within 60 nm of a line from \n21N105W to 20N108W and to 17N109W. Polo is forecast to maintain \nits present motion through Fri, followed by a west-northwestward \nto northwestward motion on Sat. On the forecast track, the core \nof Polo will continue to move away from the coast of southwestern\nMexico overnight. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- \nSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible \novernight, and Polo could become a category 5 hurricane again on \nFri. Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Fri night \nand on Sat. Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall \ntotals of 2 to 4 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican \nstates of Michoacan, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and \nNayarit. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Additional \nrainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible in coastal portions of the \nMexican states of central Jalisco and Guerrero. Swells generated \nby Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico \nduring the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward \nalong the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California\nSur on Fri and into the weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\n \nHurricane Odalys is centered near 17.1N 124.2W, or roughly about\n880 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California\nat 25/0300 UTC, moving east-northeastward at 7 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently up to \naround 36 ft (11 m). A somewhat ragged eye is seen in satellite\nimagery. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the \ncenter in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE \nquadrant and within 90 nm of the center in W semicircle. Odalys \nis expected to maintain its current motion through tonight. A \ngradual turn toward the northeast is expected Fri, followed by a \nturn toward the north by the weekend. Some intensity fluctuations\nare possible during the next day or so, followed by weakening \nthrough the weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico through Fri night,\nleading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. \nHeavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, \nthe mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of \nChiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. As this low pressure \nmoves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early \nnext week, it has a potential for tropical development.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure over \nnorthern Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean \nSea and to across southern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to 09N89W \nto 13N92W and to 14N97.5W. It then resumes to the SW of Polo at \n14N108W to 12N114W and to 16N118W. It resumes once again to the \nSW of Odalys at 13N125W to 12N130W to 11N137W and to 13N140W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N\nto 09N between 81W-92W, and from 03N to 12N between 92W-96W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to \nthe west-southwest of the offshore waters.\nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.4N \n108.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 \nkt, then begin to slowly weaken as it moves to near 17.5N 110.0W \nFri evening, to near 18.0N 111.6W Sat morning with maximum \nsustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 19.2N 112.9W Sat \nevening with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, to near\n20.8N 113.7W Sun morning, and to near 22.6N 114.0W Sun evening \nwith maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Polo is \nforecast to move to near 25.7N 112.5W late Mon with maximum \nsustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Hurricane Odalys is near \n17.1N 124.2W, or about 880 nm west-southwest of the southern tip \nof Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving east-northeastward \nat 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, \nand the minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Odalys will move to \nnear 17.7N 123.6W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt\ngusts 120 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near\n18.5N 123.3W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt \ngusts 110 kt and to near 19.7N 123.0W Sat morning with maximum \nsustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 20.9N 122.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds \n60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 21.9N 122.7W Sun morning and \nbecome post-tropical and move to near 22.4N 122.4W Sun evening. \nOdalys will weaken to a remnant low over near 21.7N 121.7W late \nMon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form \nin a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlate this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N,\nand mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of \n09N as seen in latest available satellite scatterometer data\npasses. Locally rough seas have propagated into the western \noffshore waters of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near\nsouthwestern Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except \nfor slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of \nthe Galapagos Islands. \nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly\nmoderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to \nthe west-southwest of the offshore waters.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas\nare 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near \n17.4N 108.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt \ngusts 170 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it moves to near \n17.5N 110.0W Fri evening, to near 18.0N 111.6W Sat morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 19.2N 112.9W\nSat evening with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, to\nnear 20.8N 113.7W Sun morning, and to near 22.6N 114.0W Sun \nevening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Polo is\nforecast to move to near 25.7N 112.5W late Mon with maximum \nsustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. \nHurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 17.7N 123.6W Fri \nmorning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then \nbegin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 18.5N 123.3W Fri \nevening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt and to \nnear 19.7N 123.0W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt \ngusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 122.9W \nSat evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move \nto near 21.9N 122.7W Sun morning and become post-tropical and \nmove to near 22.4N 122.4W Sun evening. Odalys will weaken to a \nremnant low over near 21.7N 121.7W late Mon.\nFresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop \nsouth of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W \nin response to a developing area of low pressure well to the \neast-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to \nsteadily build with these winds to a possible range of 7 to 10 \nft.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form \nin a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlate this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213194252469239815", "issued": "2026-09-25T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213194252469239815"}