{"id": "1213188143470084103", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T03:00:00Z", "msg": "902\nWTPZ41 KNHC 250313 CCA\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  20...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026\n \nCorrected spelling in first paragraph\n \nRecent satellite imagery continues to show a ragged eye feature \nembedded within an area of increased deep convection, with cloud-top \ntemperatures near -80 C mainly north and west of the center. \nSubjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB came in at T 5.0/90 \nkt, with UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates ranging \nfrom 85-112 kt. Using a blend of this data, the initial intensity is \nraised to 95 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/8\nkt. Odalys is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough to its\nnorthwest. The models generally agree that the hurricane should\ngradually turn toward the northeast and north over the next couple\nof days. As the hurricane begins its northward turn, forecast\nconfidence in the track decreases. The system is expected to weaken\nand become increasingly shallow, making it susceptible to steering\nfrom lower-level winds while potentially interacting with the outer\ncirculation of Hurricane Polo. Consequently, there is considerable\nspread in model guidance.  However, the general consensus is for a\nslower forward speed and a southward component of motion after day\n3. The updated NHC track forecast closely follows the previous\nadvisory and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance.\n \nIn the near term, some intensity fluctuations are possible as the \nimproved structure of Odalys could allow for additional \nstrengthening despite moderate shear and the potential for intrusion \nof drier air from the west. Thereafter, guidance suggests a faster \nrate of weakening after 36 h as the environment becomes more stable \nwith the increase of vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air, \nalong with decreasing SSTs. These conditions will likely make it \ndifficult for Odalys to sustain organized convection later this \nweekend, and the updated forecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical \ncyclone at 72 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated \nsatellite imagery.\n \nMoisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance\ninto the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may\nindirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in\nthe region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}