{"id": "1213183424193626119", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T03:00:00Z", "msg": "166\nWTNT41 KNHC 250249\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026\n\nFay has developed a more consistent area of deep convection about \nits center since the last advisory. Little has changed with the \nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of this \nstorm, however. CIMSS-UW objective estimates range from 35 to 45 \nkt, while TAFB rated Fay at 3.0 or 45 kt. Because of this, Fay's \ninitial intensity has been held steady at 45 kt. \n\nThe initial motion remains at 270/5 kt. Fay's forward motion is \nexpected to remain slow as its steering environment is \ncharacterized by weak easterly winds within the Atlantic \nsubtropical high. Over the next 24 h, Fay is expected to shift \nwest-southwest and then southwest as high pressure amplifies to its \nwest. At the same time, Fay's speed is expected to decrease even \nfurther. The latest track forecast reflects this trend toward the \nsouthwest, and closely follows HCCA guidance. \n\nWith convection deepening on satellite imagery, Fay could \nexperience a brief increase in intensity overnight, before steady \nweakening is forecast as the storm experiences increasingly drier \nmid-level air and vertical wind shear. While global forecast models \nsuggest that Fay will lose its convection over the weekend, its \nclosed circulation may persist into the middle of next week, \nallowing Fay to remain a post-tropical remnant low during that \ntime. The main change for the latest forecast was to reflect a later \ndissipation time, but otherwise Fay's overall trend remains the \nsame.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0300Z 29.8N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 29.8N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 29.7N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 29.6N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 29.5N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 60H  27/1200Z 29.4N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/0000Z 29.0N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}