{"id": "1213182828068962311", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T03:00:00Z", "msg": "148\nWTNT42 KNHC 250246\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n200 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure (Invest\nAL90) has developed a closed, albeit slightly elongated, low-level\ncirculation this morning along with organized deep convection. \nThis convection is currently displaced mainly over the eastern and\nsouthern semicircles of the circulation due to moderate westerly \nvertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data show maximum winds \nnear 40 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and TAFB provided a \nsubjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. Based \non these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm \nGonzalo with an initial intensity of 40 kt. A Tropical Storm Warning \nhas been issued for all the Cabo Verde Islands.\n \nThe initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the recent formation\nof the center, but the best estimate is 330/7 kt. Gonzalo is\nexpected to move north-northwestward during the next couple of days,\nsteered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough over the eastern\nAtlantic. As this trough lifts northeastward later in the forecast\nperiod, the cyclone will be left behind in a very weak steering\nenvironment, causing it to drift slowly over the eastern Atlantic.\nOn the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of\nthe Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Track guidance is in\nfairly good agreement in the short term, though cross- and\nalong-track differences emerge beyond day 2. The official NHC track\nforecast lies near the HCCA corrected consensus and the TVCN simple\nconsensus aids.\n \nGonzalo is currently located within a marginally conducive\nenvironment that could allow for some slight strengthening,\ncharacterized by sea surface temperatures near 27-28C and mid-level\nrelative humidity values around 60 percent. In about 24 hours,\nvertical wind shear is forecast to increase to moderate-to-strong \nlevels. This increase in shear, combined with cooling SSTs and a\nprogressively drier mid-level environment, will cause a gradual\nweakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA\ncorrected consensus aid. Global model simulated infrared satellite\nimagery depicts Gonzalo losing organized deep convection in about 3\ndays, and the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical\nremnant low at that time, and remaining a remnant low through the\nremainder of the forecast period.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions\nof the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in \neffect, later today and will continue through tonight.\n \n2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo \nVerde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to \nSenegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be \npossible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash \nflood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0300Z 13.2N  22.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 14.2N  22.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 15.6N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N  23.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.7N  23.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  27/1200Z 19.8N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 20.2N  24.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.9N  24.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0000Z 21.7N  26.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}