{"msg": "002\nAXNT20 KNHC 242318\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.8W at 24/2100 UTC\nor 890 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45\nkt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within \n75 nm across the NW semicircle. Numerous strong convection is\nnoted within 90 nm of the center. Some strengthening is possible\novernight before weakening likely commences by Fri afternoon.  A \ngenerally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is \nexpected over the next few days.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): \nAn elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles\nsouth-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large\narea of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could\nbecome a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later\ntoday or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.\nIncreasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further\ndevelopment over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands\nshould monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas\nof heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by\nFriday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the\neast along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western\nportions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest\nportions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of \nformation in the next 48 hours.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to \nupper- level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level \nmoisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail \nacross this area during the next several days, and aid in \nfunneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and \nthe western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall \nthrough Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding \nthe exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy \nrainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near \nChiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El \nSalvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions \nof Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, numerous showers and isolated\nthunderstorms extends from the Gulf of Honduras, north- \nnortheastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern \ncoastal waters of Cuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will \ncreate the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and \nlandslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 49W, S of \n14W, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection \nis noted from 10N to 13N between the wave axis and 51W. \nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 13N \ninto western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is depicted over waters in association with this wave.\n\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 16N17W and extends\nSW to near 12N35W. The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to 10N50W.\nScattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between\n28W and 35W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from SW Florida to the upper Texas\ncoast. N of the boundary, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 2\nto 4 ft seas prevail. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft\nseas dominate. \nFor the forecast, the stationary front will begin to move E as a\ncold front and progress through the basin through Fri, then stall\nagain over the SE Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh \nwinds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle \nto moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will \ndiminish slightly Sun into early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is\nexpected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nAt the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends\na weak ridge north of the area.Fresh trades prevail across most \nof the basin S of 15N and E of 80W. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7\nft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate winds prevail along and 3\nto 5 ft in the moderate winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds \nand slight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient will generate moderate to\nfresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate\nwinds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the \nnext couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay. \nA mid- and upper-level trough and associated surface boundaries\nextending from offshore North Carolina to the Florida Straits is\ngenerating numerous moderate convection W of 70W. The most\ndominant frontal boundary extends from 31N72W to South Florida. N\nof this boundary, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas \nare increasing. Ahead of the front, north of 28N and between 71W \nand 73W moderate S to SW winds prevail.\n \nAnother upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N53W. This \nfeature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area \nof scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 50W and \n56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient \ncontinues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains \ncentered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This \npattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and \nvariable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W. However, swell\ngenerated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft\nN of 28N between 38W and 45W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary \nwill shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of\nFlorida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal \nboundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow \nthe front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213141860254285831", "issued": "2026-09-24T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213141860254285831"}