{"msg": "172\nAXPZ20 KNHC 242134\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 105.5W at 24/2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with\ngusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 40 ft, or 12.0 m.\nNumerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye\nwithin 180 nm of the center. Polo is moving west-northwest and a\nturn toward the west is expected Fri, followed by a return to the\nwest-northwest Sat. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is\nexpected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico this\nafternoon and evening. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the \nSaffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is\nexpected tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast starting Fri\nnight and Sat. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact coastal\nsections of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. This \nrainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during \nthe next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the \ncoast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on \nFri and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 16.8N 124.9W at 24/2100 UTC,\nmoving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with\ngusts to 100 kt. Peak seas have increased to 33 ft, or 10.0 m.\nNumerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. \nOdalys is moving toward the east-northeast. This general motion\nis expected through tonight, with a gradual turn toward the\nnortheast and north expected Fri and Sat. Some fluctuations in\nstrength are possible in the next day or so, followed by\nweakening through the weekend. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder\nof the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into\nthe weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of \nnorthwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as \nwell as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise\nconcerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific \nsouth of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for \ntropical development.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 10N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to\nnear the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to near the Gulf of\nTehuantepec at 15N96W. The monsoon trough resumes SSW of Odalys\nfrom 12N127W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection \ndescribed in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 83W, \nfrom 02N to 11N between 88W and 91W, from 13N to 16N between 92W \nand 99W, and within 210 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 134W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between \n97W and 101W, and within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between \n125W and 134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W\nthis evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri \nevening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, \n19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will\nchange little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja \nCalifornia Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this \nevening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. \nOdalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, \nthen reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun \nmorning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the \nRevillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions \nshould be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form early next week as the system moves \nslowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance\nof tropical formation of this system through the next seven \ndays. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters N of 09N, with\ngentle to moderate S-SW winds S of 09N. Locally rough seas have\npropagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to\nMajor Hurricane Polo near SW Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas \nprevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, \nand in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. \nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly\nmoderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas\nare 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W\nthis evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri \nevening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, \n19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will\nchange little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja \nCalifornia Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this \nevening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. \nOdalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, \nthen reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun \nmorning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the \nRevillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions \nshould be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form early next week as the system moves \nslowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance\nof tropical formation of this system through the next seven \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213121430802300935", "issued": "2026-09-24T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213121430802300935"}