{"id": "1213109685253439495", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "msg": "491\nWTPZ41 KNHC 242034\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026\n \nThere are hints of a ragged eye feature in recent visible satellite \nimages of Odalys. A 1735 UTC 89 GHz GMI image of the hurricane \nshowed a mostly closed mid-level eyewall, although convection was a \nbit thin on the west side due to moderate westerly shear. The \nvarious UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from \n71-84 kt. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in best agreement \nwith recent D-MINT and SATCON estimates.\n\nOdalys is moving east-northeastward (060/7 kt) while being steered \nby a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models \ngenerally agree that the hurricane should gradually turn toward the \nnortheast and north over the next couple of days. There was a \nwestward shift in the guidance envelope through the first 2-3 days \nof the forecast, and the NHC prediction was adjusted accordingly. \nThe long-range track forecast is challenging, with Odalys forecast \nto become increasingly shallow while weakening and also possibly \nbeing influenced by the outer circulation of Hurricane Polo. The \nmodel spread greatly increases at 72-120 h, but the general signal \nis for a slower forward speed and a southward component of motion at \ndays 3-5. The NHC forecast was nudged west of the previous one at \nthese times, falling in between the latest TVCN and HCCA aids.\n\nIn the near term, small intensity fluctuations are possible as the \nimproved structure of Odalys could allow for a little strengthening \ndespite moderate shear and the potential for intrusion of drier air \nfrom the west. The latest intensity guidance shows little change \nduring this period, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After 36 h, \na faster rate of weakening is forecast based on an expected \nincrease in shear, as well as decreasing SSTs along the forecast \ntrack. These conditions will likely make it difficult for Odalys to \nsustain organized convection later this weekend, and the updated \nforecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical cyclone at 72 h based on \nthe latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.\n \nMoisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance \ninto the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may \nindirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in \nthe region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for \nmore information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/2100Z 16.8N 124.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}