{"msg": "386\nAXNT20 KNHC 241957\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1800 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.2W at 24/1500 UTC\nor 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45\nkt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within \n75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted within 130 nm over the NE and NW and 70 nm SW\nquadrants. Some additional strengthening is possible\nthrough tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to \ncommence on Friday. A generally westward motion with some \ndecrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): \nAn elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles\nsouth-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large\narea of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could\nbecome a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later\ntoday or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.\nIncreasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further\ndevelopment over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands\nshould monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas\nof heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by\nFriday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the\neast along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western\nportions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest\nportions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of \nformation in the next 48 hours.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough \ncurrently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the \nYucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea \nsurface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. \nAn elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during\nthe next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There \nis still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest\nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently,\nnumerous showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the Gulf\nof Honduras, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and \ninto the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island\nand the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 73W. Heavy rainfall \nacross these regions will create the possibility of life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nSee Special Features section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for\ntropical formation. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, S of 14.5W,\nmoving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 10N to 13N between the wave axis and 51W. \nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 14N \ninto southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No\nsignificant convection is depicted over waters in association \nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 16N17W and extends\nsouthward to 1007 low pressure near 12.3N21.1W then continues \nwestward to 10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N49W and continues\nto to near 10N59.5W. Scattered showers prevail from 04.5N to 09N\nbetween 27.5W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted \nfrom 09N to 13N west of 59W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas.\nModerate to locally fresh NE winds along with seas 2 to 4 ft \nprevail in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, weak high pressure \nprevails ahead of the front supporting light to gentle NE to E\nwinds along with seas 1 to 3 ft. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to \nprogress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE\nGulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow \nthe front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds \nwill prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun \ninto early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,\nand expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nTo the east, an upper level trough extends from the central \nAtlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. This trough is\nsupporting scattered moderate convection south of 13N and east of\n65W. \nAt the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends\na weak ridge north of the area, producing a weak pressure \ngradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate to fresh trades \nprevail across most of the basin S of 15N and E of 80W. Seas in \nthese winds are 4 to 7 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate\nwinds prevail along and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds.\nElsewhere, outside of convection, light to gentle winds and \nslight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate \nmoderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle \nto moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay. \nA deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic\nstates of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America\ncontinues to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central \nBahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical \nmoisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the \nsouth of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is \ninteracting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed \nwithin this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits \nof Florida. A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to South\nFlorida. Moderate to fresh winds prevail behind the front, except\nfor strong winds offshore NE Florida along with seas to 9 ft.\nAhead of the front, north of 28N and between 71W and 73W moderate\nS to SW winds prevail.\n \nAnother upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N53W. This \nfeature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area \nof scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 50W and \n56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient \ncontinues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains \ncentered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This \npattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and \nvariable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W. However, swell\ngenerated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft\nN of 28N between 38W and 45W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary \nwill shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of\nFlorida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal \nboundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow \nthe front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213102344684503047", "issued": "2026-09-24T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213102344684503047"}