{"msg": "063\nAXPZ20 KNHC 241544\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 16.8N 104.4W at 24/1500 \nUTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with \ngusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft, or 12.5 \nm. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined\neye within 150 nm of the center. Polo is moving west-northwest\nand this motion is expected to continue through Fri, before a\nturn to the northwest commences Sat. On the forecast track, the \ncore of Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern \nMexico today before moving farther out to sea. Polo is a category\n4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some \nnear-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is expected to \nremain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days. Heavy \nrainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of \nsouthwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce life- \nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. \nSwells will spread northward along the coast of west-central \nMexico and toward Baja California Sur on Fri and into the \nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf,\nrip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from\nyour local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 16.4N 125.5W at 24/1500 UTC,\nmoving east-northeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with\ngusts to 100 kt. Peak seas have increased to around 30 ft, or 9.0\nm. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the\ncenter. Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast. An east- \nnortheastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for \nthe next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the \nnortheast and then north later this week. Additional \nstrengthening is expected during the next day or so, followed by \na weakening trend this weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder\nof the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into\nthe weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of \nnorthwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as \nwell as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise\nconcerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific \nsouth of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for \ntropical development.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 10N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to\nnear the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to near the Gulf of\nTehuantepec at 15N96W. The monsoon trough resumes SSW of Odalys\nfrom 12N127W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection \ndescribed in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 83W, \nfrom 02N to 11N between 88W and 91W, from 13N to 16N between 92W \nand 99W, and within 210 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 134W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between \n97W and 101W, and within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between \n125W and 134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection continues in association with a surface trough in a\ncentral and northern Gulf of California, with similar convection\nnoted on infrared satellite imagery due to the proximity of the\nmonsoon trough and the remnants of a tropical wave.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.9N 104.9W\nthis afternoon, 17.2N 106.8W Fri morning, 17.3N 108.7W near the\nRevillagigedo Islands Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.5W Sat morning, \n18.7N 111.9W Sat afternoon, and 20.1N 112.9W Sun morning as it\nmoves closer to the Baja California Peninsula. Polo will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 113.5W early Mon. \nMeanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.6N 125.0W this \nafternoon, 17.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 18.2N 123.3W Fri afternoon, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 123.1W Sat morning, 20.2N \n123.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.4N 122.8W Sun morning. Odalys will \nbecome post-tropical as it moves to 22.4N 122.3W to just beyond \nthe offshore waters of Baja California early Mon. Also, fresh to \nlocally strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec this morning through early Sat. Looking ahead, an \narea of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to \nthe south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental \nconditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form early next week as the \nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel\nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a \nhigh chance of tropical formation of this system through the next\nseven days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters N of 09N, with\ngentle to moderate S-SW winds S of 09N. Locally rough seas have\npropagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to\nMajor Hurricane Polo near SW Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas \nprevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, \nand in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Isolated to widely \nscattered moderate convection is impacting portions of the \noffshore waters as described with the monsoon trough above.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly \nmoderate seas, except locally rough offshore western Guatemala\nearly today.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas\nare 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.9N 104.9W\nthis afternoon, 17.2N 106.8W Fri morning, 17.3N 108.7W near the\nRevillagigedo Islands Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.5W Sat morning, \n18.7N 111.9W Sat afternoon, and 20.1N 112.9W Sun morning as it\nmoves closer to the Baja California Peninsula. Polo will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 113.5W early Mon. \nMeanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.6N 125.0W this \nafternoon, 17.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 18.2N 123.3W Fri afternoon, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 123.1W Sat morning, 20.2N \n123.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.4N 122.8W Sun morning. Odalys will \nbecome post-tropical as it moves to 22.4N 122.3W to just beyond \nthe offshore waters of Baja California early Mon. Very large \nseas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week \ninto the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together \nresulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, \nhigh pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much \nmaintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas into the \nweekend, freshening over the NW and N-central waters during the \nweekend and into early next week as high pressure builds from the\nNW and results in a tight pressure gradient with the two \ntropical systems. Winds may also freshen just S of the monsoon \ntrough at the same time to the W of 110W allowing for seas to \nbuild to rough there. Northerly swells will push S of 30N this \nweekend mixing with the already confused seas of Polo and Odalys \nN of 10N and E of 130W.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a \ncouple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nearly next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to\nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation\nof this system through the next seven days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213052545691582471", "issued": "2026-09-24T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213052545691582471"}