{"id": "1213041632281001991", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T15:00:00Z", "msg": "767\nWTPZ41 KNHC 241448\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026\n \nOdalys has strengthened this morning.  The satellite presentation\nconsists of a -82C Central Dense Overcast (CDO) located over an eye\nfeature depicted in a 1132 UTC AMSR-3 Microwave color composite\nimage, and a spiral band wrapping around the surface center from\nthe northwest.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt and is\nbased on a compromise of subjective and objective satellite\nintensity estimates.\n \nAlthough moderate deep-layer shear continues to inhibit significant \nstrengthening, intensity may fluctuate in the short term.  By the \nweekend, Odalys should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and \nprogressively cooler water.  As a result, gradual weakening is \nexpected through the forecast period, and Odalys should become a \npost-tropical cyclone early next week.  The NHC intensity forecast \nblends the IVCN multi-model consensus with the skilled HFIP HCCA \nand Google DeepMind aids.\n \nOdalys' initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or\n060/6 kt, and is being steered by a mid- to upper-tropospheric \ntrough situated to its northwest and a subtropical high stretching \nsouthwestward from Mexico.  A turn toward the northeast is expected \nby Friday, followed by a turn to the north with a reduction in \nforward speed over the weekend. By early next week, the track \nforecast becomes a bit hazy and Hurricane Polo is expected to be \neast of the cyclone and could cause direct interaction complexities \nin the track of Odalys. Consequently, there is quite a bit of \nuncertainty with considerable increasing model guidance spread.  \nFurther complicating the track forecast is how quickly Odalys \nweakens and becomes vertically challenged while being steered by \nthe low-level flow.  The official forecast is adjusted slightly to \nthe left of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI \naids.\n \nOdalys' wind radii were adjusted based on a 0749 UTC OSCAT-3\nscatterometer overpass.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}