{"msg": "357\nAXNT20 KNHC 241026\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1015 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N \n40.5W at 24/0900 UTC or 830 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 6 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to \n11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 \nnm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal \ntropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then\nbegin to weaken through this weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure \nlocated a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde \nIslands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and\nthunderstorms mainly E of 26W. A tropical wave accompanies this \nlow. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression \nlater today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to \nnorthward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the \nopportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo \nVerde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty \nwinds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible there \nby Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the \nnext 48 hours.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough \ncurrently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the \nYucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea \nsurface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. \nAn elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during\nthe next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There \nis still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest\nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy\nrainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-\nnortheastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern\ncoastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the \nremainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these\nregions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as\nwell as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center \nfor more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nSee Special Features section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for\ntropical formation. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 13W,\nmoving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from \n09N to 11N.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N \ninto southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W, while \nnumerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well \ninland from 01N to 08N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 20N16W and meanders\nsouthward to 1008 low pressure near 12N21W then continues \nwestward to 10.5N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W continues to \nthe coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary \nand E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nDeep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf\nfrom the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of\nCampeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection\nis noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the \nStraits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the\nwest, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface \ntrough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the \ncentral Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure \nprevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold \nfront extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and \nacross the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to \nmoderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft \nseas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for \nmoderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. \nFor the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate gentle\nto moderate winds across the remainder of the basin through \ntoday. The upper-level trough will support scattered showers and \nthunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at \nleast the next couple of days. The front is forecast to progress \nacross the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf \nthis weekend.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,\nand expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nTo the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the weak \npressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward \nto northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto \nRico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered \nshowers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin \nIsland and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is \nacross the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior \nportions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and \nthunderstorms. \nAt the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends\na weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient\nacross the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most \nof the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to strong winds \nare S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE \nColombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the \nmoderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and \nslight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate \nmoderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle \nto moderate winds elsewhere. The upper-level trough will support \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of \nBermuda.\nA deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic\nstates of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America\ncontinues to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central \nBahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical \nmoisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the \nsouth of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is \ninteracting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed \nwithin this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits \nof Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across \nthe NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh \nN-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building \nseas to 5-7 ft. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near\n24N54W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean. \nThis feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an\narea of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between \n49W and 57W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient \ncontinues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains \ncentered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This \npattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and \nvariable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for \nmoderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W.\nSeas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the \nbasin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is \nproducing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support \ngentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight.\nAn upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and \nthunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening\nlow pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal \nboundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front \nwill shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of \nFlorida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds\nand large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, \nbefore beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212990145591738375", "issued": "2026-09-24T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212990145591738375"}