{"id": "1212967795754106887", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T09:00:00Z", "msg": "325\nWTPZ42 KNHC 240833\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026\n \nPolo remains a powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite images \nindicate that the cyclone is maintaining a clear, distinct, and \ncircular eye surrounded by an intense and symmetric ring of deep \nconvection. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt, near the upper \nend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Although the core \nof the hurricane is about 50 to 100 n mi off the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico, outer rainbands are spreading onshore and \nproducing heavy rains. ASCAT data was helpful in adjusting the \ninitial wind radii, confirming that tropical-storm-force winds are \nlikely occurring along the coast of southwestern Mexico.\n \nAfter jogging to the north last night, Polo appears to be on a more \nsteady northwestward track now, with the initial motion estimated to \nbe 310/8 kt. A building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the \nsouth-central U.S. should cause Polo to accelerate to the \nwest-northwest over the next couple of days, taking the system \naway from southwestern Mexico during that time. Polo will likely \nreach the western periphery of the ridge over the weekend, and that \nshould cause the hurricane to turn northward toward the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula late this weekend and early next week. The \nNHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and based on a \nblend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.\n \nFluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while\nPolo remains in favorable environmental conditions, and any changes\nin strength during that time will likely be linked to internal\ndynamics. However, gradual weakening is expected this weekend and\nearly next week due to an increase in vertical wind shear.\nRegardless, Polo is forecast to be a major hurricane during the next\nseveral days. This intensity forecast is similar to the previous \none, and in best agreement with the HCCA guidance.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions\nof the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to\nManzanillo today.\n \n3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early\nnext week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor\nthe latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness\nplan in place.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0900Z 16.5N 103.5W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 60H  26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}