{"msg": "265\nAXNT20 KNHC 240543\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Fay is centered\nnear 29.8N 40.0W at 24/0300 UTC or 810 nm W-SW of the Azores, \nmoving W-SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 \nmb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak \nseas to 11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW \nsemicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted\nwithin 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to \nmaintain minimal tropical storm strength and move westward through\nFri morning then begin to weaken through this weekend.\nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Surface low pressure is \ndeveloping around 11.5N along a tropical wave with an axis around\n19W-20W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N\nto 15.5N, E of 23W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows a\nbroad cyclonic circulation at the surface off the W coast of \nAfrica, with peak winds around 25 kt in SW winds occurring S of \n10N. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical \ndepression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However, \nstrong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for \ndevelopment by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands \nshould monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas \nof heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. \nThis system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough \ncurrently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the \nYucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea \nsurface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. \nAn elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during\nthe next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There \nis still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest\nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy\nrainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-\nnortheastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern\ncoastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the \nremainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75.5W. Heavy rainfall across \nthese regions will create the possibility of life- threatening \nflash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather \nservices as well as the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nSee Special Features section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the far eastern Atlantic along 19N-20N that has potential\nfor tropical formation. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 16W,\nmoving west at around 10 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate \nconvection are noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the\nmonsoon trough from 09N to 11N.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N into\nsouthern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted S of 11.5N between 60W and 64W, while\nnumerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well\ninland from 01N to 08N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and\nmeanders southward to 1010 low pressure near 11.5N20W then\ncontinues westward to 10.5N37W to 08N59W. The ITCZ extends from \n08.5N48W continues to the coast of Guyana near 09N58W. Beyond\nconvection associated with the tropical wave described above,\nscattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N\nbetween 23W and 33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 09N to 10.5N between 49W and 54W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nDeep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf\nfrom the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of\nCampeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection\nis noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the \nStraits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the\nwest, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface \ntrough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the \ncentral Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure \nprevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold \nfront extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and \nacross the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to \nmoderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft \nseas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for \nmoderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle \nto moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level \ntrough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the \nSE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of\ndays. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu\nnight and Fri and produce a slight increase in winds and seas. \nThe front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf \nthis weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,\nand expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nTo the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the A weak \npressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward\nto northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto\nRico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered\nshowers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin\nIsland and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is\nacross the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior\nportions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and\nthunderstorms. \nAt the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends\na weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient\nacross the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most \nof the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to locally strong \nwinds are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE\nColombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the\nmoderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and \nslight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across\nthe basin to generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central\nCaribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level\ntrough will support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of \nBermuda.\nA deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic\nstates of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America\ncontinues to support scattered to locally numerous showers and \nthunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central\nBahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical\nmoisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the \nsouth of an approaching cold front offshore of the SE U.S. and is\ninteracting with the upper trough. A surface trough has developed\nwithin this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits\nof Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across\nthe NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh\nN-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building\nseas to 5-7 ft. Another upper- level low is drifting westward \nnear 26N53W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean.\nThis feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the \ncentral Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate \nconvection from 21N to 26.5N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this \nconvection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the \nAtlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE \nAtlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining mostly \ngentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle \nwinds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over \nthe area N of 30N between 60W and 70W. Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of\n60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. However, swell\ngenerated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft\nN of 27N between 36W and 43W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support \ngentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight.\nAn upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and \nthunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening\nlow pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal \nboundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front \nwill shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of \nFlorida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds\nand large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, \nbefore beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212934436227416071", "issued": "2026-09-24T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212934436227416071"}