{"msg": "262\nAXPZ20 KNHC 240334\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 16.0N 102.4W at 24/0300 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n923 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft or 12.5 m. Numerous \nstrong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 120\nnm of the center, except 150 nm W quadrant. Numerous moderate\nisolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in \nthe E semicircle and 240 nm in the W semicircle of Polo. Polo\nis moving toward the northwest. A turn toward the west- \nnorthwest is expected on Thu and Fri, followed by a \nnorthwestward motion on Sat. On the forecast track, the core of \nPolo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico \nthrough Thu morning before moving farther out to sea. Polo is a \ncategory 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nSome additional near-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is \nexpected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few \ndays. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life-\nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Swells \nwill spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and \ntoward Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, \nand coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 15.6N 126.7W at 24/0300 UTC,\nmoving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.\nPeak seas are around 26 ft or 8.0 m. Numerous strong convection\nis noted within 150 nm of the center, except 60 nm SW quadrant.\nNumerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to\n19N between 118W and 130W. Odalys is moving toward the east. An \neastward to east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed \nis expected for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn \ntoward the northeast then north later this week. Additional \nstrengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by\na weakening trend late this week. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder\nof the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into\nthe weekend. Rainfall amounts of over 6 inches are possible over\nportions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and\nGuatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico.  \nHeavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-\nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. As this low pressure\nmoves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early\nnext week, it has a potential for tropical development.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 93W north of\n05N is no longer discernible and likely was absorbed into the\nouter, large circulation of Major Hurricane Polo off to the NW.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from across western Panama and eastern\nCosta Rica to the coast near 09N83W to 15N96W, then resumes S of\nOdalys from 10N131W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection \ndescribed in the sections above, isolated to widely scattered \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between\n77W and 92W, from 02N to 05N between 98W and 102W, and within 180\nnm either side of the monsoon trough between 126W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection continues in association with a surface trough in a\ncentral Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.5N 103.7W\nThu morning, 16.9N 105.6W Thu evening, 17.1N 107.5W Fri morning,\n17.3N 109.4W Fri evening, 17.9N 111.0W Sat morning, and 19.2N \n112.2W Sat evening near the Revillagigedo Islands. Polo will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 113.3W late Sun\nas it approaches Baja California Sur. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys\nwill change little in intensity as it moves to 20.8N 122.7W late\nSun as it slows just beyond the Baja California offshore waters. \nAlso, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec starting early Thu through the end of the week.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a \ncouple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nover the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this system through the next seven days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters. Moderate \nseas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore \nColombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.\nIsolated to widely scattered moderate convection is impacting\nportions of the offshore waters as described with the monsoon\ntrough above.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds, with generally \nmoderate seas, are expected to prevail across the offshore waters\nthrough the weekend.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the \noffshore waters.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas\nare 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.5N 103.7W\nThu morning, 16.9N 105.6W Thu evening, 17.1N 107.5W Fri morning,\n17.3N 109.4W Fri evening, 17.9N 111.0W Sat morning, and 19.2N \n112.2W Sat evening near the Revillagigedo Islands. Polo will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 113.3W late Sun\nas it approaches Baja California Sur. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys\nwill change little in intensity as it moves to 20.8N 122.7W late\nSun as it slows just beyond the Baja California offshore waters. \nVery large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end \nof the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer \ntogether resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. \nOtherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will \npretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \ninto the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system \nmoves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the\ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high \nchance of tropical formation of this system through the next \nseven days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212909039133425671", "issued": "2026-09-24T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212909039133425671"}