{"id": "1212900747501568007", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "242\nWTPA42 PHFO 240252\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  14\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2026\n \nNolo's convective organization has improved slightly during the past \nseveral hours, with persistent deep convection within a curved band \nwrapping into the circulation from the north around the western \nsemicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from \nJTWC and HFO are both T2.0/30 kt, while objective intensity \nestimates range from 30 to 40 kt. Given the improved convective \norganization and the higher objective estimates, the initial \nintensity was increased to 40 kt in the 2 PM HST intermediate \nadvisory and is maintained for this advisory.\n \nNolo is moving west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 285/5 \nkt. A weakening subtropical ridge to the north should allow \nNolo to slow down and turn northward tonight into Thursday, followed \nby a north-northeastward motion as an upper-level trough deepens \nnorthwest of the Hawaiian Islands. As the trough moves westward and \nthe subtropical ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, Nolo is forecast to \nmake a sharp westward turn Friday night into Saturday. The latest \nGDMI and HCCA guidance has shifted slightly to the left, taking Nolo \nfarther south of the Big Island. The NHC track forecast reflects a \nblend of the previous forecast and these aids, and shows Nolo \npassing about 85 n mi south of the Big Island on Saturday, then \nabout 215 n mi south of the smaller Hawaiian Islands during the \nlatter portion of the weekend. However, uncertainty remains \nregarding exactly when and where the sharp westward turn will occur, \nwith the ECMWF remaining on the right side of the guidance envelope \nand bringing Nolo closer to the islands.\n \nEnvironmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening, with \nvery warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture \nalong the forecast track. However, around 10 kt of easterly vertical \nwind shear may temper the rate of intensification during the next 24 \nto 36 h. As the shear relaxes and Nolo continues to develop an inner \ncore, a faster rate of intensification is forecast while the cyclone \nmoves northward to north-northeastward during the next couple of \ndays. These conditions could support rapid intensification, and Nolo \nis forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and reach major \nhurricane strength on Saturday as it passes south of the Big Island. \nThe latest NHC intensity forecast hovers near the upper end of the \nguidance envelope throughout the forecast period.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane\nby Thursday night as it turns northward, potentially making its\nclosest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A\nHurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island, and residents\nthere should follow advice given by local officials, including\nevacuating if told to do so.\n\n2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding\nimpacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely\nby Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to\ncontinue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.\nLife-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and\nMaui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are\nexpected, with isolated flooding possible.\n\n3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the\nBig Island into the weekend.\n\n4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest\nforecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans\nin place.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 14.7N 155.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.8N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.4N 155.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.2N 155.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.1N 155.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  26/1200Z 17.5N 155.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 17.4N 156.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 17.5N 158.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 18.9N 162.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n \n"}