{"id": "1212900478399021063", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "227\nWTPZ41 KNHC 240250\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026\n \nThe convective organization of Odalys has remained largely unchanged\nover the past several hours. However, the hurricane continues to\nproduce deep convection with cloud-top temperatures around -80 C\nexpanding north and west of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity\nestimates from TAFB came in at 4.5/77 kt, supported by objective\nestimates from UW-CIMSS, namely DMINT and ADT, at 78 and 72 kt,\nrespectively. Given these data and the deeper convection, the\ninitial intensity is raised to 75 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 85/6 kt. This\ngeneral motion is expected to continue through the next day or so\nbefore turning toward the northeast and then north. Odalys is being\nsteered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its\nnorthwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico.\nBeyond day 3, potential interaction with Hurricane Polo complicates\nthe track forecast of Odalys, and model spread increases\nsignificantly at this time.  The current NHC track forecast is\nlargely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to\nthe corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind\nensemble mean.\n \nOdalys is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for the next\n24 h, which could allow for additional strengthening or at least\nintensity maintenance. Thereafter, increasing westerly vertical wind\nshear, lower SSTs, and mid-level dry air will induce a steady\nweakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows the\ncorrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and remains aligned with the\nprevious advisory.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 15.6N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}