{"id": "1212898092759318535", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "907\nWTNT41 KNHC 240238\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026\n\nDeep convection has persisted since the previous advisory, \nespecially to the north and northeast of the surface center.  Recent \nmicrowave and geostationary satellite data indicate fairly good \nconfidence that the center is near the southern or southwestern edge \nof the convection.  The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is \n2.5/35 kt and recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS \nrange from 33-42 kt.  A pair of ASCAT passes from around 23/2300 UTC \nshowed several reliable 32 kt wind vectors.  Given the low bias of \nthe ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, the initial intensity is \nraised to 35 kt, in agreement with the TAFB estimate, making Fay a \ntropical storm again.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250 \ndegrees at 8 kt.  Fay is expected to continue moving generally \nwestward for the next few days as it is steered by a narrow low- to \nmid-level ridge to its north, although a deceleration is expected in \na couple of days as steering currents weaken.  The NHC forecast is \nvery similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to, but \nslightly faster toward the west than, the latest GDMI and HCCA.  \nConfidence in the NHC track forecast appears to be above average due \nto good agreement among the track models.\n\nFay is forecast to remain over warm water and within a weak vertical \nwind shear environment for another 36 hours, but the dry airmass \nthat Fay is embedded in, with mid-level relative humidity values \nbetween 30 and 40 percent, should prevent significant strengthening. \nThe NHC forecast shows little change in strength while the shear \nremains weak.  By 48 hours, increasing northeasterly vertical wind \nshear should work to induce gradual weakening.  The NHC forecast is \na little higher than the previous one, in that it shows a more \ngradual weakening in the 36 to 72 hour period.  The NHC forecast is \nnear the middle of the guidance envelope, and forecast confidence is \nmedium to high.  No changes have been made to the timing of \npost-tropical transition or dissipation, but it should be noted that \nthe UKMET and Canadian models hold onto the low a bit longer than \nindicated in the NHC forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 29.8N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 29.8N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 29.9N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 29.7N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  26/1200Z 29.6N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  27/0000Z 29.8N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}