{"msg": "280\nAXNT20 KNHC 232326\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay: Newly redeveloped Tropical Depression \nFay is centered near 30.1N 39.2W at 23/2100 UTC or 770 nm SW of \nthe Azores, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure \nis 1011 mb. Winds of 25 to 30 kt, rough seas, and numerous\nmoderate to isolated strong convection are noted within about 150\nnm of the center in the northern semicircle. Fay is forecast to \nstrengthen as it continues moving west tonight, and is expected to\nbecome a tropical storm. Gradual weakening should begin by this \nweekend. \nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Low pressure is developing\naround 10N along a tropical wave with an axis around 18W. Numerous\nmoderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N,\nE of 22W. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical\ndepression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However,\nstrong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for \ndevelopment by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands \nshould monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas \nof heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. \nThis system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough \ncurrently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the \nYucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea \nsurface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. \nAn elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during\nthe next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There \nis still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest\nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy\nrainfall is ongoing from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, \nwestward across the Cayman Islands to 87W and then northward \nacross east-central Cuba to Andros Island in the Bahamas. \nHeavy rainfall in these regions will create the possibility of \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nSee Special Features section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical\nformation. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, S of 16W,\nmoving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 09N to 12N between 45W and 54W. \nA western Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 16N, \nmoving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted S of 16N between 61W and 66W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 07N48W, where it\ntransitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N58W. Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N \nbetween 22W and 27W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection continues across the Florida Keys\nsouthwestward toward the Yucatan Channel in association with a\ndeep layer trough. Otherwise, mainly gentle NE winds dominate with\nslight seas. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle \nto moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level \ntrough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the \nSE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of\ndays. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night\nand Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the \nSE Gulf this weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on low\npressure in the far western Caribbean producing heavy rainfall\nover portions of Central America into the weekend. \nA weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin. Moderate \ntrades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2 to 4 ft,\nwhile fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and \nextreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Outside of \nconvection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across \nthe SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate\nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on newly re-\ndeveloped Tropical Depression Fay well east-southeast of Bermuda. \nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain across eastern Cuba \nand over much of the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters W of \n67W. This activity is occurring due to the combination of ample \nmoisture across the area and unstable conditions created by the \npersistent and deep layered upper trough across the eastern Gulf \nof America and NW Caribbean. Another upper-level low is drifting \nwestward near 25N50W. This feature is interacting with several \nsurface troughs in the central Atlantic resulting in an area of \nscattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 46W and \n53.5W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient \ncontinues across much of the Atlantic. This pattern is sustaining \nmostly gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to \ngentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds\nover the area N of 26.5N between 57W and 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft \nacross this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \nsupport gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through \ntonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and\nthunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold \nfront will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The \nfront will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the \nstraits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to \nstrong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and \nFri, before decreasing on Sat. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212860268179554311", "issued": "2026-09-23T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212860268179554311"}