{"msg": "916\nAXPZ20 KNHC 232125\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.7N 102.4W at 23/2100 \nUTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to \n150 kt. Peak seas are currently around 40 ft or 12 m. Numerous\nstrong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 180\nnm of the center. A continued NW motion is expected through Thu,\nwith a turn toward the WNW thereafter, through the weekend. On \nthe forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although\nit is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 \nhurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nFluctuations in intensity are expected, but Polo is expected to \nremain a very powerful major hurricane during the next few days. \nHeavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life-\nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep\nterrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect \nportions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few \ndays. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip\ncurrent conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 15.5N 127.2W at 23/2100 UTC,\nmoving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt.\nPeak seas are around 25 ft or 8 m. Numerous strong convection \nis noted within 120 nm of the center. Odalys is moving toward \nthe E, and a general ENE or E motion with a decrease in forward \nspeed is anticipated for the next couple of days, followed by a\ngradual turn toward the NE then N for the end of the week. \nStrengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by\na weakening trend at the end of the week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder\nof the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into\nthe weekend. Rainfall amounts of over 6 inches are possible over\nportions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and\nGuatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico.  \nHeavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-\nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. As this low pressure\nmoves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early\nnext week, it has a potential for tropical development.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N, drifting \nslowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N\nto 16N between 87W and 96W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N95W, then resumes\nwest of Hurricane Odalys near 13N130W and continues to 13N140W.\nAside from the convection described in the sections above,\nscattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm either side\nof the monsoon trough W of 130W.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Major\nHurricane Polo. \nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection continues in association with a surface trough in a\nsouthern Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 15.7N 102.4W at 2\nPM PDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds\nare 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 932 mb. Polo will move to 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, \n16.7N 105.0W Thu afternoon, and 16.9N 106.9W Fri morning.\nHurricane Polo will reach 17.2N 108.9W Fri afternoon, 17.7N \n110.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 112.0W Sat afternoon. Polo will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to the north of the\nRevillagigedo Islands Sun afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near \n15.5N 127.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving east at 6 kt. Maximum \nsustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is 984 mb. Odalys will move to 15.8N 126.0W Thu \nmorning, 16.4N 124.7W Thu afternoon, and 17.3N 123.6W Fri \nmorning. Hurricane Odalys will be near 18.1N 123.1W Fri \nafternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 122.9W Sat \nmorning, then reach 20.2N 122.7W Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm \nOdalys will change little in intensity as it moves to the west of\nthe Revillagigedo Islands Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, an area \nof low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental \nconditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early \nnext week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this \nsystem through the next seven days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters. Moderate \nseas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore \nColombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.\nScattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the \ncoasts of Colombia and Panama. \nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds, with generally \nmoderate seas, are expected to prevail across the offshore waters\nthrough the weekend.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate trades are over the waters \nfrom 14N to 20N to the W of 129W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed \nnortheast and southeast swell within this area, highest to the W \nof Odalys to 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are\nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 15.7N 102.4W at 2\nPM PDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds\nare 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 932 mb. Polo will move to 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, \n16.7N 105.0W Thu afternoon, and 16.9N 106.9W Fri morning.\nHurricane Polo will reach 17.2N 108.9W Fri afternoon, 17.7N \n110.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 112.0W Sat afternoon. Hurricane \nOdalys is near 15.5N 127.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving east at 6 \nkt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and \nthe minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Odalys will move to 15.8N\n126.0W Thu morning, 16.4N 124.7W Thu afternoon, and 17.3N 123.6W\nFri morning. Hurricane Odalys will be near 18.1N 123.1W Fri \nafternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 122.9W Sat \nmorning, then reach 20.2N 122.7W Sat afternoon. Very large seas \ngenerated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into \nthe upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting\nin very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high \npressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas into the weekend.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a \ncouple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nover the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly \nwest- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this system through the next seven days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212836509278273543", "issued": "2026-09-23T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212836509278273543"}