{"msg": "631\nAXNT20 KNHC 231804\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): \nThe remnant low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 30.5N37.5W.\nWinds of 20-25 kt continue within 180 nm across the N semicircle,\nwhere buoy observations suggest seas are 7 to 10 ft. Scattered\nmoderate convection has increased in recent hours, and within 90\nnm across the NE semicircle of the low. While environmental\nconditions are only marginally conducive for development, this\nsystem could become a tropical depression again today or tonight\nif the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is\nforecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by\nthe weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances.\nThis system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. \nFar Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):\nA new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and\nhas been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Satellite derived winds\nalso depicted a low along the wave axis near 09N15W. Numerous\nmoderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N and east of 22W.\nThis area of low pressure is gradually becoming better defined,\nand the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased\nsince yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical\ndepression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to\nnorthward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the\nopportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo\nVerde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty\nwinds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by\nFriday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next\n48 hours. \nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to \nupper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level \nmoisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail \nacross this area during the next several days, and aid in \nfunneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and \nthe western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall \nthrough Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding \nthe exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy \nrainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near \nChiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El \nSalvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions \nof Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing \nfrom the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman \nIslands to 87W and then northward across east-central Cuba to \nAndros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are \nelsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the remainder of the \nBahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the \npossibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and\nhas been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Please refer to the Special\nFeatures section above for more information on this tropical wave. \nAn Atlantic tropical\nwave is analyzed along 45W, S of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. \nIsolated moderate convection is from 09.5N to 12N between 42.5W \nand 46W.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 15N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is\ndepicted south of 09N and west of 58W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits Africa near 12N16.5W and extends \nsouthwestward to 07N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and \ncontinues to 09N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted from 04N to 10N between 22W and 27W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as \nweakening high pressure across the SE U.S. extends a ridge across \nthe northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level \ntrough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active \nthunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern\nCuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has \ndiminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate \nconvection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida \nwaters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers \nfrom central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the Yucatan Channel.\nThe current surface pattern is generally producing light to \ngentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle \nto moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level \ntrough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the \nSE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of\ndays. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night\nand Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the \nSE Gulf this weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\non impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean. \nOutside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair\nweather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a\nlow-level trough moving across the Virgin Islands. At the \nsurface, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin. \nModerate trades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2\nto 4 ft, while fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW \nVenezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. \nOutside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas \nprevail across the SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate\nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for at least the next couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for more \ninformation on the Central Subtropical Atlantic system (Former \nTropical Storm Fay).\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across \nthe NW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas\nand adjacent Atlantic waters W of 67W. This activity is occurring\ndue to the combination of ample moisture across the area and \nunstable conditions created by the persistent and deep layered \nupper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean. \nAnother upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N50W. This \nfeature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central\nAtlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection \nfrom 22N to 28N between 46W and 53.5W. Outside of this convection,\na weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic. \nThis pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of \n20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except \nfor moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 26.5N between 57W \nand 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to \n6 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \nsupport gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through \ntonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and\nthunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold \nfront will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The \nfront will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the \nstraits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to \nstrong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and \nFri, before decreasing on Sat. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212796967207698439", "issued": "2026-09-23T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212796967207698439"}