{"msg": "085\nAXNT20 KNHC 231027\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to \nupper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level \nmoisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail \nacross this area during the next several days, and aid in \nfunneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and \nthe western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall \nthrough Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding \nthe exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy \nrainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near \nChiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El \nSalvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions \nof Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing \nfrom the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman \nIslands to 83W and then northward across east-central Cuba to \nAndros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are \nelsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the remainder of the \nBahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the \npossibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 43W, S of 15N, moving\nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to \n12N between 41W and 45W.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 16N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted\nat this time.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits Africa along the Guinea coast near \n11N15W and extends southwestward to 09N44W, where it transitions \nto the ITCZ and continues to 09N59W. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 25W \nto the coast of Africa.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as \nweakening high pressure across the SE U.S. extends a ridge across \nthe northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level \ntrough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active \nthunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern\nCuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has \ndiminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate \nconvection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida \nwaters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers \nfrom central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the western Straits \nof Florida. The current surface pattern is generally producing \nlight to gentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf. \nModerate E-NE winds and seas to 3 ft are occurring well offshore \nof southern Texas between 93W and 95W. \nFor the forecast, the current weak pressure pattern across the\nGulf will continue to generate gentle to moderate winds across \nthe Gulf through Thu. The persistent middle to upper-level trough\nwill support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf\nand the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. \nA cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and \nFri. The front will shift southward accompanied by increasing\nwinds and seas, before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\non impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean. \nOutside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair\nweather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a\nlow-level trough moving across the Leeward Islands. At the \nsurface, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin. \nModerate trades prevail across most of the basin E of 76W, where \nseas are 3 to 5 ft, while fresh to strong winds are S of 14N to \nthe coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are\n5 to 7 ft. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and \nslight seas prevail across the remaining waters of the western \nCaribbean.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue across\nthe basin to produce moderate to fresh trades over the S central \nCaribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A deep layered\nupper trough over NW portions will support scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the \nnext couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nOf note: What was previously Tropical Depression Fay is now a \npost-tropical remnant low pressure of 1013 mb centered near\n30.5N37.0W. Winds of 20-30 kt continue within 180 nm across the N\nsemicircle, where buoy observations suggest seas are 8 to 13 ft. \nScattered moderate convection has increased in recent hours, and \nwithin 90 nm across the E semicircle of the low.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the\nNW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas and\nadjacent Atlantic waters S of 28N and W of 67W. This activity is \noccurring due to the combination of ample moisture across the area\nand unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep \nlayered upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW \nCaribbean. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near \n26N51W. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs \nin the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate\nconvection from 22.5N to 28N between 41W and 53W. Another surface\ntrough is moving westward across the Lesser Antilles, and \nproducing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the \nLeeward Islands and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 59W. Outside of \nthis convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much \nof the Atlantic. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to \nmoderate trades S of 23N and variable light to gentle winds \nelsewhere W of 50W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the \narea N of 25N between 58W and 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less across \nthis area except 5 to 8 ft N of 26N between 49W and 52W.\nElsewhere, the Azores high is centered across the NE Atlantic\nalong 20W and extends a ridge southwestward and drapes across the\nremnant low of Fay. The resultant pressure gradient is yielding \nmoderate N to NE winds from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verdes,\nwith strong winds along the coast of Africa. Seas there are 3 to \n6 ft. Moderate NE trades prevail S of 21N between the Cabo Verdes \nand 50W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. N of this area winds are light\nto gentle. However, long period N to NE swell has moved into the \nwaters N of 25N and E of 52W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a continued weak pressure gradient \nwill support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters \nthrough Wed night. The upper-level trough will support scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days.\nA cold front will move off the SE United States coast late Wed \nnight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda \nto the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. \nFresh to strong winds and increasing seas in large NE swell will \nfollow the front on Thu and Fri.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212707259044560903", "issued": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212707259044560903"}