{"msg": "504\nAXPZ20 KNHC 230851\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0740 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.0N 101.4W at 23/0900 \nUTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n918 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 \nkt. Peak seas are currently around 46 ft or 14 m. Numerous strong\nconvection is noted around the well-defined eye within 150 nm in\nthe E semicircle, and 120 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered to\nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere\nwithin 180 nm of the center, except 330 nm in the SW quadrant.\nPolo is moving toward the north. A sharp turn to the northwest \nis expected to begin later today followed by a general west-\nnorthwestward motion later this week and over the weekend. On the\nforecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although\nit is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 \nhurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nFluctuations in intensity are expected, but Polo is expected to \nremain a very powerful major hurricane during the next few days.\nHeavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life-\nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions\nof the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip \ncurrent conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office.\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Odalys is centered near 15.9N 128.4W\nat 23/0900 UTC, moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 \nkt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7\nm. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm\nin the NE quadrant, 330 nm in the SE quadrant, and 120 nm in the\nW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection is found elsewhere within 420 nm in the SE semicircle,\nand 150 nm in the NW semicircle. Odalys is moving toward the \neast-northeast. An eastward to east- northeastward motion at a \nslightly slower speed is expected through the next couple of \ndays, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north \nlater this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased. \nAdditional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, \nfollowed by a weakening trend late this week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough\ncurrently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm \nsea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a \npotential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next \nseveral days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced \nmoisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, \nsupporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some \nuncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, \nbut for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme\nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central \nGuatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall\nin these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services \nas well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 90W/91W north of 04N, \ndrifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 06N to 16N between 87W and 96W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across\nPanama, exiting the coast at 08N83W to 13N95W, then resumes past\nthe circulations of Polo and Odalys from 13N129W to 13N140W. \nAside from the convection associated with Polo and Odalys and the\ntropical wave all discussed above, scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is found within 180 nm either side of the \nmonsoon trough W of 129W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nmajor Hurricane Polo and on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys\nwell W of the area.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh\nnorthwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or \nweaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder \nof the waters away from Polo. Some convection is present near the\nGulf of Tehuantepec mainly due to an approaching tropical wave as\ndescribed above.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W\nthis afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu \nafternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, \nand 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in \nintensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Looking ahead,\nOdalys is forecast to slightly strengthen and gradually approach\nthe waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by \nthe end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with \nOdalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix \nwith those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas \nthis weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming \nweekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to \nform in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlate this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters, locally\nmoderate S of the Equator and W of Ecuador. Moderate seas \nprevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore \nColombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.\nSome convection is present near the coast of Colombia, and\nbeyond 60 nm offshore to the N of 10N due to a passing tropical\nwave described above.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple\nof days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nmajor Hurricane Polo and on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys\nwell W of the area.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate to fresh trades are over the\nwaters from 14N to 20N to the W of 129W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in \nmixed northeast and southeast swell within this area, highest to\nthe W of Odalys to 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter\nsatellite data.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W\nthis afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu \nafternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, \nand 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in \nintensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Meanwhile,\nHurricane Odalys will move to 16.1N 127.3W this afternoon, 16.5N\n126.0W Thu morning, 17.2N 124.7W Thu afternoon, 18.0N 123.5W Fri\nmorning, 18.7N 122.9W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 19.5N 122.7W Sat morning. Odalys will change little in\nintensity as it moves to 21.4N 122.6W early Sun. Very large seas\ngenerated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into\nthe upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together \nresulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, \nhigh pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much \nmaintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the \nrest of the week.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to \nform in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlate this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212688340737720327", "issued": "2026-09-23T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212688340737720327"}