{"id": "1212686308608049159", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-23T09:00:00Z", "msg": "166\nWTPZ41 KNHC 230841\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Odalys has recovered from the \nearlier dry air intrusion. Deep convection has developed over the \nlow-level center, with a convective shield that has cold cloud tops \nnear -80 C. In addition, a recent WSF-M microwave pass revealed a \nnearly closed low-level convective ring and a developing eye \nfeature. A subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB has \nincreased to T4.0/65 kt, and objective intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS range between 55 and 68 kt. Based on these estimates and \nthe improved structural organization in the microwave data, the \ninitial intensity is set at 65 kt, making Odalys a hurricane.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/8 \nkt. This general motion is expected to continue in the short term as \nOdalys is steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough \nmoving into the eastern Pacific and a strong ridge located over \ncentral Mexico. A turn toward the northeast and then north is \nforecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern \nbecomes increasingly complex, and potential interaction with \nHurricane Polo will likely complicate the future track of Odalys. \nThe updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and \nlies near the previous the HCCA and GDMI track aids.\n \nVertical wind shear is forecast to begin relaxing as Odalys \ntraverses warm sea surface temperatures, which should allow for \nsteady strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 to 72 \nhours, wind shear is forecast to increase once again, SSTs will \ncool, and Odalys may begin to experience upper-level outflow from \nHurricane Polo. At the same time, the cyclone will move into a drier \nmid-level environment, which should induce a weakening trend. The \nofficial NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak \nintensity, and is closest to the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. \nToward the end of the forecast period, model-simulated infrared \nsatellite imagery indicates that Odalys will succumb to a drier \nenvironment. As the system becomes devoid of organized deep \nconvection, it is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical \ncyclone, which is now shown in the latest NHC forecast at day 5. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0900Z 15.9N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}