{"id": "1212685030604734471", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-23T09:00:00Z", "msg": "083\nWTPZ42 KNHC 230834\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026\n \nSatellite images indicate that Polo remains a powerful major\nhurricane. The cyclone continues to maintain a distinct, circular,\nand clear eye. However, the convection in the eyewall is not quite\nas intense as it had been over the past 24 hours. Although there\nhave not been any recent microwave images available, there are\nstill signs in geostationary satellite data that the system has a\ndouble eyewall structure. The initial intensity is set at 135 kt,\nwhich is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.\nThe far northern bands are brushing up against the southwestern\ncoast of Mexico, and ASCAT data show winds to tropical storm force\njust off the coast.\n \nThe cyclone has moved little over the past several hours, however,\na building mid-level ridge over Mexico and the south-central U.S.\nshould cause Polo to turn northwestward or west-northwestward later\ntoday. This motion should take the center of the hurricane just off\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Even though the\nintense core of Polo should stay offshore, outer rainbands are\nlikely to spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or\nso, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds.\nPolo should pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula Friday\nand Saturday, and then likely turn northward when it reaches the\nwestern periphery of the ridge. Little change was made to the \nprevious track forecast, and this prediction is near a blend of the \nHCCA, GDMI, and TVCA aids.\n \nFluctuations in strength seems likely over the next day or so, due \nto internal dynamics, while the major hurricane remains in favorable \nenvironmental conditions. However, a gradual weakening trend is \nexpected after that time due to an increase in easterly vertical \nwind shear and slightly drier air. Nonetheless, Polo is forecast to \nremain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. The NHC \nintensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect \nwestward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely \nmonitor updates to the forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0900Z 15.0N 101.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 60H  25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}