{"msg": "271\nAXNT20 KNHC 230440\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A middle to\nupper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of\nAmerica across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level\nmoisture are present. An elongated low level trough will develop\nacross this area during the next several days, and aid in\nfunneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and \nthe western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall\ntonight through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty \nregarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now \nheavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico \nnear Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El\nSalvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions\nof Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, very heavy rainfall is \nongoing from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the\nCayman Islands to 83W and then northward across east-central Cuba\nto Andros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered pockets of moderate \nconvection are elsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the \nremainder of the Bahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will \ncreate the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and \nlandslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 40W, S of 15N, moving\nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is about the\nmonsoon trough in this area from 10N to 11.5N between 38W and 45W.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 16N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms are noted from 08.5N to 11.5N between 54W\nand 60W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis exits Africa along the Guinea coast near \n10N14.5W and extends southwestward to 1009 mb low pressure near\n09N16W to 10.5N23W to 09.5N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ \nand continues to 08N50W and to 09N56W. Scattered to locally\nnumerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to \n11.5N E of 25W to the coast of Africa.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA very weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as\nweakening high pressure across the SE U.S. extends a ridge across\nthe northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level \ntrough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active \nthunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern\nCuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has \ndiminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate \nconvection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida \nwaters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers \nfrom central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the western Straits \nof Florida. The current surface pattern is generally producing \nlight to gentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf. \nModerate E-NE winds and seas to 3 ft are occurring well offshore \nof southern Texas between 93W and 95W. \nFor the forecast, the current weak pressure pattern across the\nGulf will continue to generate gentle to moderate winds across \nthe Gulf through Thu. The persistent middle to upper-level trough\nwill support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf\nand the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. \nA cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and \nFri. The front will shift southward accompanied by increasing\nwinds and seas, before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\non impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean. \nOutside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair\nweather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a\nlow level trough moving across the Leeward Islands, while evening\nconvection is diminishing across SW Hispaniola. At the surface, a\nweak pressure pattern is across the basin, as 1022 mb Atlantic\nhigh pressure is located E of Bermuda along 57W and extends a\nridge into the SE Bahamas. Moderate trades prevail across most of\nthe basin E of 76W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft, while fresh to \nstrong winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and \nextreme NE Colombia, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Outside of\nconvection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across\nthe remaining waters of the western Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue across\nthe basin to produce moderate to fresh trades over the S central \nCaribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A deep layered\nupper trough over NW portions will support scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the \nnext couple of days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nOf note: What was previously Tropical Depression Fay is now a \npost-tropical remnant low pressure of 1013 mb centered near 30.5N\n36W, or about 630 nm southwest of the Azores. Winds of 20-30 kt\ncontinue within 180 nm across the N semicircle, where buoy\nobservations suggest seas are 8 to 13 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection has increased in recent hours, and within 90 nm across\nthe E semicircle of the low.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the\nNW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas and\nadjacent Atlantic waters S of 27.5N and W of 75W. This activity \nis occurring due to the combination of ample moisture across the \narea and unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep \nlayered upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW \nCaribbean. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near \n26N51W. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs \nin the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate\nconvection from 22.5N to 28N between 41W and 53W. Another surface\ntrough is moving westward across the Lesser Antilles, and producing\nscattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the Leeward\nIslands and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 59W. Outside of this\nconvection, a rather weak pressure gradient continues across much\nof the Atlantic, with 1022 mb high pressure across the Atlantic E\nof Bermuda along 57W producing a modest ridge into the SE Bahamas,\nwhile a surface trough lingers from central Florida to near \n31N76W. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate \ntrades S of 23N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of \n50W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 25N\nbetween 58W and 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less across this area except\n5 to 8 ft N of 26N between 49W and 52W.\nElsewhere, the Azores high is centered across the NE Atlantic\nalong 20W and extends a ridge southwestward and drapes across the\nremnant low of Fay near 30.5N36W. The resultant pressure gradient\nis yielding moderate N to NE winds from the Canary Islands to the\nCabo Verdes, with strong winds along the coast of Africa. Seas\nthere are 3 to 6 ft. Moderate NE trades prevail S of 21N between\nthe Cabo Verdes and 50W, where seas are4 to 6 ft. N of this area\nwinds are light to gentle. However, long period N to NE swell has\nmoved into the waters N of 25N and E of 52W, where seas are 6 to 8\nft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a continued weak pressure gradient \nwill support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters \nthrough Wed night. An upper-level trough will support scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days.\nA cold front will move off the SE United States coast late Wed \nnight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda \nto the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. \nFresh to strong winds and increasing seas in large NE swell will \nfollow the front on Thu and Fri.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212638943823986695", "issued": "2026-09-23T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212638943823986695"}