{"msg": "875\nAXPZ20 KNHC 230328\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0140 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 14.7N 101.3W at 23/0300 UTC,\nmoving northeast at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n905 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 \nkt. Peak seas are around 46 ft or 14.0 m. Satellite imagery shows\nthat Polo continues to have a small eye. Numerous strong \nconvection is noted within 120 nm in the E semicircle, and 105 nm\nin the W semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection \nis noted elsewhere within 240 nm of center, except 390 nm SW \nsemicircle. Polo is drifting toward the northeast. A slow but \nsharp turn to the northwest is expected to begin tonight followed\nby a general west-northwestward motion over the next few days. \nOn the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week,\nalthough it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5\nhurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nFluctuations in intensity are expected over the next few days, \nthough Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major \nhurricane. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal\nportions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to\naffect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the \nnext few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.5N 129.0W at 23/0300\nUTC, moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft or 7.5 m. Satellite \nimagery shows that its deep convection of numerous strong type \nintensity is within 75 nm in the E semicircle. Scattered to \nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere \nwithin 360 nm of center, except 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys\nis moving toward the east-northeast. An eastward to east-\nnortheastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected \nthrough the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn \ntoward the northeast then north later this week. Additional \nstrengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast to become a \nhurricane later tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS \nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo\nand Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough\ncurrently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm \nsea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a \npotential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next \nseveral days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced \nmoisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, \nsupporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some \nuncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, \nbut for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme\nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central \nGuatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall\nin these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services \nas well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 04N, drifting\nslowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N\nto 07N between 81W and 94W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across\nPanama and Costa Rica, exiting the coast at 10N86W to 08N93W,\nthen resumes well W past the circulations of Polo and Odalys,\nfrom 13N131W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated\nwith Polo and Odalys and the tropical wave all discussed above,\nno additional convection is present.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nrapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh\nnorthwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or \nweaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder \nof the waters away from Polo.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.0N\n101.6W Wed morning, 15.9N 102.8W Wed evening, 16.4N 104.3W Thu \nmorning, 16.6N 106.1W Thu evening, 16.8N 108.0W Fri morning, and \n17.0N 110.0W Fri evening. Polo will change little in intensity as\nit moves to 18.2N 112.7W late Sat. Otherwise, moderate to \nlocally fresh northwest winds will prevail across the offshore \nBaja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions \nin Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to\nthe proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys \ncurrently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja \nCalifornia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually\napproach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore \nwaters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells \nassociated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California \nwaters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and \nhazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds \nmay develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into\nthe upcoming weekend. Also, An area of low pressure is expected \nto form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves\nslowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern \nPanama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nextremely dangerous major Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm \nOdalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters \nroughly from 15N to 22N to the W of 133W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in\nmixed northeast and southeast swell within this area of fresh \ntrades. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere \nas noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.0N\n101.6W Wed morning, 15.9N 102.8W Wed evening, 16.4N 104.3W Thu \nmorning, 16.6N 106.1W Thu evening, 16.8N 108.0W Fri morning, and \n17.0N 110.0W Fri evening. Polo will change little in intensity as\nit moves to 18.2N 112.7W late Sat. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm \nOdalys will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 128.0W Wed\nmorning, move to 15.8N 126.6W Wed evening, 16.4N 125.3W Thu\nmorning, 17.1N 124.1W Thu evening, 17.9N 123.2W Fri morning, and\n18.6N 122.9W Fri evening. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm\nover 20.2N 122.6W late Sat. Very large seas generated by both \nsystems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming \nweekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very \ndangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over\nthe remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a \ncouple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlate this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212624833143144455", "issued": "2026-09-23T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212624833143144455"}