{"id": "1212615722494099463", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-23T03:00:00Z", "msg": "663\nWTPZ41 KNHC 230242\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026\n \nOdalys appears to have been impacted by mid-level dry air \nentrainment earlier tonight, which disrupted the deep convection \nthat had been occurring near and to the west of the partially \nexposed center. In addition, a recent SSMIS pass indicated moderate \nnortherly wind shear had displaced the mid-level center to the south \nof the low-level circulation and was displacing the remaining \nconvection to the south and east of the center. However, new \nconvection is developing near the core of Odalys, with cloud top \ntemperatures rapidly cooling to below -80 C. The latest TAFB \nintensity estimate was 3.5/55 kt, while objective intensity \nestimates range from 53-67 kt. The intensity is held at 60 kt for \nthis advisory. \n\nThe strong tropical storm is moving toward the east-northeast around \n8 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple \nof days as the system is guided by a strong long-wave trough over \nthe far eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged \nslightly to the left through the first 24 h. A turn toward the \nnortheast, followed by a northward motion, is forecast by late this \nweek as an upper-level low strengthens and approaches Odalys from \nthe northwest. Beyond 72 h, the track forecast becomes more \nuncertain, as a potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could \ninfluence Odalys' motion while the major hurricane moves parallel to \nthe southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC forecast has been \nadjusted to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 h, toward \nthe HCCA solution. \n\nWeakening wind shear and sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures \nshould support gradual strengthening over the next 24 h or so, and \nOdalys is expected to become a hurricane later tonight. By late this \nweek, however, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and increasingly \nunfavorable upper-level outflow associated with Hurricane Polo are \nexpected to induce gradual weakening through this weekend. The \ncurrent NHC intensity forecast lies near the top of the model \nguidance envelope and remains close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind \nsolutions. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0300Z 15.5N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}