{"msg": "999\nAXPZ20 KNHC 230009 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nCorrected Remainder of the Area section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.5W, or about 185 nm \nm south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 22/2100 UTC, and nearly \nstationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas have \nrisen up to near 45 ft or 14 m. Satellite imagery shows that Polo \nhas a small eye as it continues to intensify. Numerous strong \nconvection is within 90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the SE \nquadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is \nelsewhere within of the center in the W semicircle. Polo is nearly \nstationary, but a slow northwestward motion is expected tonight \nfollowed by a generally west-northwestward motion over the next \ncouple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected \nto be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of \nthis week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a \ncategory 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nSome additional strengthening is possible tonight, with fluctuations \nin strength possible Wed and Wed night. Polo is expected to produce \nrainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to \n8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero \nand Michoac\u00e1n through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- \nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions \nof Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo \nare expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico \nduring the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products \nfrom your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.1N 130.1W, or about \n1235 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California\nmoving east-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to \n75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft or 7 m. Satellite imagery shows \nthat its deep convection of numerous strong type intensity \nis within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 270 nm of \nthe center in the center in the SE quadrant, 300 nm of the center in \nthe center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the NW \nquadrant. Odalys is forecast to maintain its present motion over the \nnext couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the northeast \nlate this week.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys \ncould become a hurricane later today or tonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo \nand Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough\ncurrently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm \nsea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a \npotential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next \nseveral days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced \nmoisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, \nsupporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some \nuncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, \nbut for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme\nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central \nGuatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama.  Heavy \nrainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. Please consult products \nfrom your local weather office.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within\n180 nm west of the wave and 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to \n14N.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nA shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across \nsouthern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N89W. No significant \nconvection is presently noted.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nrapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh\nnorthwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or \nweaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder \nof the waters away from Polo.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N \n101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 \nkt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late \nWed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near \n16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts \n185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained \nwinds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon and to \nnear 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt \ngusts 140 kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northwest winds \nwill prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through \nearly Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores \nwill start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking \nahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the \nsouthern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a \nhurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja \nCalifornia offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer \nswells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja \nCalifornia waters and mix with those from Polo to create very \nconfused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly \ngap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then \npulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could \nform late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel \nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern \nPanama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The coverage \nof scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore \nwaters of Guatemala and El Salvador has diminished this \nafternoon.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. \nA tropical depression could from this area of low pressure late \nthis week or this weekend as the system moves slowly away from \nthe offshore waters. Swells from this system may potentially \nimpact the western portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala \nand El Salvador. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nextremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical \nStorm Odalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters \nroughly from 15N to 23N west of 134W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed \nnortheast and southeast swell within this area of fresh trades.\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as \nnoted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N \n101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts\n195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W\nlate Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt,\nto near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds \n150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with \nmaximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt and to near 17.4N \n108.5W Fri afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt.\nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.2N 129.3W late tonight with maximum sustained \nwinds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon \nwith maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.8N 126.6W \nlate Wed night, to near 16.5N 125.3W Thu afternoon, the begin to \nweaken as it moves to near 17.3N 124.1W late Thu night and to near \n18.0N 123.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts \n80 kt. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Very large \nseas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week \ninto the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together \nresulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, \nhigh pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much \nmaintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest \nof the week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212585648114794503", "issued": "2026-09-22T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212585648114794503"}