{"msg": "222\nAXNT20 KNHC 222341\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A middle to\nupper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures are present. In addition,\na Central American Gyre looks to form over the next several days.\nAll of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling \ninto Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall \ntoday through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding \nthe exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy \nrainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near \nChiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El \nSalvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions\nof Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, very heavy rainfall is \nongoing from central Cuba to western Jamaica. Scattered pockets\nof moderate convection are elsewhere north of about 14N and west \nof 77W. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for \nlife- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 34W from 06N\nto 19N moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of \n22N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of the wave \nfrom 09N to 13N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n12N16W southwestward to 10N21W and generally westward to 10N32W\nand to 10N39W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N46W and \nto 08N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within\n240 nm south of the trough between 14W-20W, and within 30 nm \nnorth of the trough between 16W-21W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA very weak pressure gradient remains across the area. It is \ngenerally providing for light to gentle winds and slight seas \nacross the Gulf. A rather broad upper-level trough over the \neastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms south of about 26N and east of 86W, including \nthe Straits of Florida and waters adjacent to Dry Tortugas.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned weak pressure gradient will\ngenerate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. \nAn upper- level trough will support scattered showers and \nthunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of \nFlorida for at least the next couple of days. A cold front is \nforecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri. The front \nwill shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf this \nweekend.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\non impactful convection in the northwestern Caribbean. \nOutside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the \nbasin. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate\nmoderate to fresh trades east of about 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft\nwith these trades as a 2230Z satellite altimeter pass was of \nassistance in verifying these seas. Light to gentle trades and \nslight seas prevail west of 80W.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate\nto fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support\nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western\nCaribbean for at least the next couple of days.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nOf note: What was previously Tropical Depression Fay is now a \npost-tropical remnant low pressure of 1011 mb centered near 30.8N\n35.3W, or about 600 nm southwest of the Azores. Its maximum \nsustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is over the low pressure center, and within \n60 nm SE of the low pressure.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the\nBahamas, off the coast of Florida, and between the Bahamas and \nBermuda, west of about 65W. This activity is due to the\ncombination of ample deep-layer moisture and upper-level \ndivergence southeast of a broad upper-level trough that is\nover the Gulf of America. Another upper-level low moving westward\nas seen on water vapor imagery farther east near 26N51W. This\nfeature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central\nAtlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from\n21N to 28N between 42W and 53W. Another surface trough is just east\nof the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms\nare seen from 13N to 16N between 58W and 61W. Outside of convection,\na rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic is \nsustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are \noccurring with these trades.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \ngenerally support gentle to moderate trades across the forecast \nwaters through Wed night. An upper-level trough will produce \nscattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next \ncouple of days. A cold front will move off the southeastern \nUnited States coast late Wed night. The front will shift eastward,\nreaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night\nbefore it starts to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas \nwill follow the front on Thu and Fri, before decreasing on Sat. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212580199488978951", "issued": "2026-09-22T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212580199488978951"}