{"id": "1212546001513086983", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-22T21:00:00Z", "msg": "633\nWTPZ42 KNHC 222047\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n300 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026\n \nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Hurricane Polo this\nafternoon and found that it had strengthened even more since this\nmorning.  The highest 700 mb flight-level winds were 168 kt, which\ncorresponds to 151 kt at the surface using a standard reduction\nfactor.  However, the aircraft also found that the central pressure\nhad dropped to an extremely low value of about 892 mb. This would\ntypically support even higher winds than 151 kt, so the advisory\nintensity is set conservatively to 155 kt.  The system continues to\nlook very impressive on satellite imagery with very deep convection\nand well-defined upper-level outflow.  The radial profile of the\naircraft wind data show hints of a secondary wind maximum so a\nconcentric eyewall may be developing.\n \nAircraft and satellite center fixes indicate little movement over\nthe past few hours.  Global models show a mid-tropospheric ridge\nbecoming established over Mexico during the next couple of days.\nThis evolution of the steering pattern should result in a\nwest-northwestward track in the 48- to 72-hour time frame.  In 4-5\ndays, the steering currents are more uncertain.  However, Polo\nappears likely to slow down and turn more northward by that time.\nThe official forecast is very similar to the previous NHC track.\n \nPolo should remain in a very conducive environment of low vertical \nwind shear, extremely warm ocean waters, and a very moist low- to \nmid-level air mass for the next several days.  Therefore even more \nstrengthening is possible.  Given the suggestion of concentric \neyewall formation however, only a slight increase in intensity is \nforecast tonight and fluctuations in intensity are likely over the \nnext few days.  However, the hurricane is expected to remain very \nintense through this week and, in fact, maintain category 5 strength \nfor a couple of days.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions\nof southwest Mexico through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect \nwestward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely\nmonitor updates to the forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/2100Z 14.6N 101.5W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.5N 102.4W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.6W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 16.7N 105.2W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 60H  25/0600Z 17.0N 106.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 17.4N 108.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 18.7N 111.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n \n"}