{"id": "1212545116564488199", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-22T21:00:00Z", "msg": "518\nWTPZ41 KNHC 222043\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026\n\nDeep convection was on a positive trend until recently, when the \ncloud tops started to warm based on the data from infrared satellite \nimagery, likely due to entering the diurnal convective minimum. The \nlatest subjective TAFB Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which is the same \nas the last several cycles. The objective satellite intensity \nestimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 53-70 kt. Therefore, the \ninitial intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe cyclone is currently moving east-northeastward, or 60/3 kt. This \ngeneral motion is expected to persist as a trough that is moving \nover the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United \nStates should deepen further. After this, the trough will become the \nmain steering flow for Odalys resulting in an east-northeastward or \nnortheastward motion for the next few days. After 72 h, the \nuncertainty in the track increases as potential interaction with \nHurricane Polo could cause Odalys to slow down later in the forecast \nperiod. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous \ntrack with only a few minor adjustments and continues to be in good \nagreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.  \n\nThe cyclone is forecasted to be in an environment with weaker wind \nshear, plenty of mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface \ntemperatures, and this is expected to lead to additional \nintensification over the next few days. Thus, Odalys is forecast to \nbecome a hurricane tonight. After 48 h, Odalys will encounter a \ndrier mid-level air mass and increased upper-level outflow from \nHurricane Polo. The current NHC intensity guidance remains on the \nupper end of the model guidance, but close to the HCCA and GDMI \nforecast aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}