{"msg": "896\nAXNT20 KNHC 221714\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A middle to\nupper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures are present. In addition,\na Central American Gyre looks to form over the next several days.\nAll of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling \ninto Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall \ntoday through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding \nthe exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy \nrainfall looks likely across extreme SE Mexico near Chiapas, \nsouthern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador,\nsouthern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa \nRica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western\nJamaica and into western Cuba as numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is seen in the NW Caribbean N of 14N and W of 78W. \nHeavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34W from \n06N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N48W to \n07N54W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are active near the southern end of this tropical \nwave from 07N to 11N between 54W and 58W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n12N16W west-southwestward to 10N40W. The ITCZ is analyzed from\n10N40W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is \nnoted from 05N to 13N and E of 21W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating\nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- \nlevel trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits and the \neastern Gulf.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle \nto moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper- level \ntrough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the \nSE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days.\nA cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and \nFri, with little to no increase in the winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\non convection in the NW Caribbean. \nOutside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the \nbasin. Moderate to fresh trades along with 3-6 ft seas remain \neast of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail west \nof 80W.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate\nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. An upper- level trough will support \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for at least the next two days.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness, Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 31.1N \n34.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 560 nm SW of the Azores, moving SW at 9 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the\nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and \nthe latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the\nBahamas, off the coast of Florida, and between the Bahamas and \nBermuda, west of 65W. This activity is due to ample deep layer \nmoisture and upper level divergence southeast of an upper trough \nover the Gulf. Another upper low is centered farther east near \n25N50W, interacting with several surface troughs in the central \nAtlantic to support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms N \nof 20N between 40W and 60W. Another surface trough is analyzed E \nof the Lesser Antilles, with scattered moderate convection along \nthe trough axis. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure \ngradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to \nmoderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these \ntrades.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \nsupport gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through \nWed night. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers \nand thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold \nfront will move off the SE United States coast late Wed night and \nextend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning and from 31N69W \nto the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and \nincreasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before \ndecreasing on Sat. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212504080286089223", "issued": "2026-09-22T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212504080286089223"}