{"msg": "546\nAXPZ20 KNHC 221624 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nCorrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1545 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.7N 101.6W at 22/1500 \nUTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n920 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 \nkt. Peak seas have risen up to near 44 ft or 13.5 m. Satellite \nimagery shows that Polo has a clear and well defined eye, with very \ndeep convection continuing to wrap around an eyewall. Numerous \nstrong convection in wide bands are within 270 nm of the center in \nthe SE quadrants. Numerous moderate to strong, also in bands, is \nelsewhere within 150 nm of the center, except 240 nm in the SW \nquadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen \nfrom 17N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Polo is forecast to turn \ntoward the northwest and west-northwest is expected tonight and \nWednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be \nnear the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, \nalthough forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane \non the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional \nstrengthening is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in \nstrength possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Polo is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum \ntotals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states \nof Guerrero and Michoac\u00e1n through Thursday. This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nof steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal \nportions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells \ngenerated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.9N 130.5W at 22/1500 \nUTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 \nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6 m. Satellite imagery shows\nthat Odalys is continuing to improve in organization. Numerous \nstrong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE\nquadrant, 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, 360 nm of \nthe center in the SW quadrant and 60 nm of the center in the \nNW quadrant. Odalys is slowly moving toward north. A turn toward\nthe northeast and then east-northeast is expected to occur over \nthe next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is \nexpected through the end of the week. Additional strengthening \nis forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or \ntonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on both systems.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough\ncurrently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm \nsea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a \npotential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next \nseveral days. All of these factors are expected to lead to \nenhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the \nCaribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through \nthe 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact \nlocation of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks \nlikely. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 05N, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within \n60 nm either side of the wave from 12N to 13N. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nA shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across \nsouthern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N90W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 90 nm north of the trough between 88W-90W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nrapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW\nwinds are offshore Baja California per overnight ASCAT \nscatterometer data, with moderate or weaker winds across the \nremainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of \nCalifornia, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters \naway from Polo.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N \n101.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 \nkt, to near 15.4N 101.9W Wed morning with with maximum sustained \nwinds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near \n16.7N 104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts \n170 kt, to near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near \n18.4N 110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 \nkt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail \nacross the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning \nwhen conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to \ndeteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical \nStorm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of \nBaja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and \ngradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California \noffshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells \nassociated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California \nwaters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and \nhazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may \ndevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the \nupcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form \nin the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterward, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form late this week or \nthis weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and\nin the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of\nGuatemala and El Salvador due to a tropical wave approaching 90W.\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the\nwave over the outer offshore waters of northern Costa Rica.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to\nprevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is\nexpected to form just west of the area south of the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. A tropical depression could from this area of low \npressure late this week or this weekend as the system moves \nslowly away from the offshore waters. Swells from this system may\npotentially impact the western portion of the offshore waters of\nGuatemala and El Salvador.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nextremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical \nStorm Odalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 14N to 24N and west of 133W due \nto a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest \nportion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of \n140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.4N \n101.9W Wed morning, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near 16.7N \n104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, \nto near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 130 kt \ngusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with maximum \nsustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near 18.4N \n110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.2N 129.9W this evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.3N 128.7W Wed morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.6N 127.3W Wed \nevening, to near 16.1N 126.0W Thu morning, then begin to gradually \nweaken as it reaches to near 16.7N 124.8W Thu evening with maximum \nsustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 17.4N 123.7W Fri \nmorning. Odalys is then forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near \n18.9N 123.0W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 \nkt. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end \nof the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer \ntogether resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. \nOtherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty \nmuch maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212494153941647367", "issued": "2026-09-22T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212494153941647367"}