{"id": "1212475117031391239", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-22T15:00:00Z", "msg": "307\nWTNT41 KNHC 221447\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026\n\nFay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds \nwith no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the \nmaximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is \ndowngraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back \nin the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low \nlater today.\n\nThe system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the\neastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn \ntoward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the \nnext day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the \nnorth of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance \nenvelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous \nforecast.\n\nCurrently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear \nand dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the \nshear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong \nupper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air \nentrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite \nimagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent \norganized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new \nintensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual \nweakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/1500Z 31.1N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 30.5N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  23/1200Z 29.9N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/0000Z 29.5N  39.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/1200Z 29.4N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  25/0000Z 29.5N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/1200Z 29.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N  46.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}