{"id": "1212403262188486663", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-22T09:00:00Z", "msg": "097\nWTNT41 KNHC 220841\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026\n \nDeep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated, \nleaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery. \nGiven the lack of organized deep convection over the past several \nhours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless \nconvection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite \nintensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a \nblend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 \nkt for this advisory.\n \nThe system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the \neastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward \nthe west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day \nor two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is \nnear the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the \nGDMI and HCCA aids.\n \nA combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should \ncause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may \nrelax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly \nwarmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery \nsuggests that any returning convection will occur only in \nintermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the \nNHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become \na post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open \ntrough by the end of the period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/0900Z 31.8N  33.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 31.2N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  23/1800Z 29.9N  38.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/0600Z 29.7N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  24/1800Z 29.8N  42.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/0600Z 29.9N  43.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/0600Z 30.1N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}