{"msg": "084\nAXNT20 KNHC 220841\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0840 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to \nupper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in \naddition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form \nduring the next several days. All of these factors are expected to\nlead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the\nCaribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through \nthe 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact \nlocation of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks \nlikely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across\nsouthern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El \nSalvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western \nJamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these\nregions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding \nand landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34w from \n05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N47W to \n07N51W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this \ntropical wave from 19N to 22N between 45W and 47W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n13N16W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend\nfrom 11N25W to 10N33W, from 10N35W to 07N49W, and from 07N51W to \n06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N \nbetween 18W and 23W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1015 mb high pressure\nover south-central Louisiana, prevails across the area generating\nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- \nlevel trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. A few \nshowers and thunderstorms the coast of Louisiana. \nFor the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to\nmoderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-\nlevel low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over\nthe SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two\ndays. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and\nFri, accompanied with little to no increase in the winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAs described above in the Special Features section, large areas \nof showers and thunderstorms continue to move north of Jamaica \nand into western and central Cuba. This activity is due to \nabundant tropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the \nsoutheast side of an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to \nthe Yucatan Channel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms\nare noted elsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of \nconvection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate \nto fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light\nto gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north\nof the area to the Colombian Low will continue forcing moderate \nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several \ndays. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the \nnext two days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 31.8N 33.7W at\n22/0900 UTC, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with \ngusts to 45 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on \nTropical Storm Fay.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the\nBahamas, off northeast Florida, and between the Bahamas and\nBermuda, west of 70W. This activity is due to ample deep layer\nmoisture and upper level divergence southeast of an upper trough\nover the Gulf. Dry, subsident conditions prevail between 50W and \n65W, except for a small area of thunderstorms northeast of \nBarbados near 15N58W, along a persistent surface trough. Another \nupper low is center farther east near 26N50W, supporting an area \nof showers and thunderstorms near from 19N to 22N between 45W and\n47W on the northern end of a tropical wave. Mostly dry conditions\nare noted elsewhere. Outside of convection, a rather weak \npressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly \ngentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with \nthese trades.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north\nof the area to the Colombian Low will continue forcing moderate \nto fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several \ndays. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the \nnext two days. \nMeanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a remnant\nlow near 31.2N 35.0W this afternoon, then move to 30.5N 36.9W Wed\nmorning, and 29.9N 38.9W Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will\ncontinue to diminish as the weakening remnant low moves to 29.7N \n40.7W Thu morning, 29.8N 42.2W Thu afternoon, and 29.9N 43.4W Fri \nmorning. The low pressure will will change little in intensity as\nit moves to 30.1N 45.3W early Sat.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212403150380335111", "issued": "2026-09-22T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212403150380335111"}