{"msg": "077\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220840\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0730 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.8W at 22/0900 \nUTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with \ngusts to 160 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 36 ft or 11.0 m,\nand may be even higher. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a \nclearly and well defined eye on infrared images, with incredibly \ndeep convection wrapping around an eyewall. Numerous strong \nconvection is present within 120 nm of the center. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 10N\nto 17N between 97W and 106W. Polo is moving toward the east-\nsoutheast. This general motion is expected to continue today, \nwith a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest \nanticipated tonight and Wed. On the forecast track, the core of \nPolo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico \nduring the next few days, although forecast to remain offshore.\nPolo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane \nWind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo\ncould become a Category 5 hurricane later today. Heavy rainfall\nassociated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest \nMexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nSwells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.7N 130.4W at 22/0900\nUTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6.0 m. Satellite \nimagery shows deep convection with numerous moderate to strong \nconvection seen within 75 nm in the NE quadrant, 210 nm in the S\nsemicircle, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate\nisolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 410 nm in\nthe SE semicircle and 120 nm in the NW semicircle. Odalys is \nmoving toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the northeast \nand then east-northeast is expected over the next day or so. An \neast-northeast to eastward motion is expected through the end of \nthe week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could\nbecome a hurricane later today or tonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on both systems.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough\ncurrently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm \nsea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a \npotential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next \nseveral days. All of these factors are expected to lead to \nenhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the \nCaribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through \nthe 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact \nlocation of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks \nlikely. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 01N, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below \nwith the monsoon trough.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea\nnorthwestward to across portions of Central America, and is not\npresent over the discussion waters east of 140W due to the\ncirculations of Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys. Other\nthan the convection associated with those systems and described\nabove, isolated to widely scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 15N between 77W and 102W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nrapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW\nwinds are offshore Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer\ndata, with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the \nwaters. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft \nacross the remainder of the waters away from Polo.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 14.6N 101.6W\nthis afternoon, 15.0N 101.8W Wed morning, 15.7N 102.5W Wed \nafternoon, 16.4N 103.7W Thu morning, 17.0N 105.2W Thu afternoon, \nand 17.4N 106.8W Fri morning. Polo will change little in \nintensity as it moves to 18.2N 109.7W early Sat. Otherwise, \nmoderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the \noffshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when \nconditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to \ndeteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical\nStorm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip\nof Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and \ngradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California \noffshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells \nassociated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California \nwaters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and \nhazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds \nmay develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into\nthe upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure could form \nin a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nThereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form late this week\nor this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward\nto northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and\nin the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is\npresent across much of the offshore waters due to a passing\ntropical wave described above. Locally higher winds and seas may\nbe in and near any convection.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to\nprevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure may form \njust west of the area.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nrapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm\nOdalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 14N to 24N and west of 133W due \nto a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest \nportion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of \n140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 14.6N 101.6W\nthis afternoon, 15.0N 101.8W Wed morning, 15.7N 102.5W Wed \nafternoon, 16.4N 103.7W Thu morning, 17.0N 105.2W Thu afternoon, \nand 17.4N 106.8W Fri morning. Polo will change little in \nintensity as it moves to 18.2N 109.7W early Sat. Meanwhile, \nTropical Storm Odalys will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N\n130.2W this afternoon, move to 15.3N 129.3W Wed morning, 15.4N \n128.0W Wed afternoon, 15.8N 126.6W Thu morning, 16.3N 125.3W Thu \nafternoon, and 17.0N 124.4W Fri morning. Odalys will weaken to a \ntropical storm over 18.5N 123.2W early Sat. Very large seas \ngenerated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into \nthe upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting\nin very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high \npressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212403065890373639", "issued": "2026-09-22T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212403065890373639"}