{"msg": "200\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220300\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 15.0N 102.3W at 22/0300 UTC,\nmoving east-southeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with\ngusts to 115 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 30 ft or 9.0 m,\nand may be higher already. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has\nan eye on infrared images, with very deep convection wrapping \naround an eyewall. Numerous strong convection is present within\n120 nm in the E semicircle, 210 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm\nin the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted elsewhere within 0 nm in the NE quadrant, 210\nnm in the SE and NW quadrants, and 270 nm in the SW quadrant.\nPolo is moving toward the east-southeast. This general motion is\nexpected to continue overnight, with a sharp turn toward the \nnorthwest and west-northwest anticipated late Tue into Wed. On \nthe forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or \nsouth of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few \ndays. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so,\nand Polo is expected to become a major hurricane shortly, and a \npotentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane by Wed. Heavy\nrainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of \nsouthwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin \naffecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tue. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.3N 130.3W at 22/0300 \nUTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with \ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft or 5.5 m. Satellite \nimagery shows deep convection with numerous moderate to strong \nconvection seen within 45 nm of the center, except within 150 nm \nin the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection \nis seen elsewhere within 360 nm in the NE quadrant, 510 nm in the\nSE quadrant, 990 nm in the SW quadrant, and 150 nm in the NW \nquadrant. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn \ntoward the north is expected tonight, followed by a gradual turn \ntoward the east-northeast and east through midweek. Some \nstrengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and \nOdalys is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on both systems.\nHeavy Rainfall over Central America: Over the next several days,\nthe potential development of a Central American Gyre (CAG) is\nexpected. This CAG along with warm Sea Surface Temperatures will\nfuel an enhanced amount of moisture in the region and deepen\nconvection over land, while a deep mid to upper level trough\nextends over the western Caribbean. It is too early to determine\nexact rainfall amounts. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 02N, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below\nwith the monsoon trough.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea\nnorthwestward to across portions of Central America, and is not\npresent over the discussion waters east of 140W due to the\ncirculations of Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys. Other\nthan the convection associated with those systems and described\nabove, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 00N to 15N between 77W and 90W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 08N to 12N between 116W and 119W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on \nHurricane Polo.\nAside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW\nwinds are offshore Baja California with moderate or weaker winds\nacross the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf\nof California, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters\naway from Polo.\nFor the forecast, Polo will move to 14.9N 101.8W Tue morning,\n15.1N 101.7W Tue evening, 15.6N 102.2W Wed morning, 16.5N 103.2W\nWed evening, 17.3N 104.5W Thu morning, and 17.7N 106.0W Thu \nevening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.6N\n109.2W late Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds \nwill prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through \nearly Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur \noffshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo.\nLooking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the \nsouthwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to \nstrengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just\nbeyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the\nupcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will\npropagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from\nPolo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. \nFresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. \nAlso, an area of low pressure could form in a few days to the \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression could form late this week or this weekend \nwhile the system moves slowly west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and\nin the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is\npresent across much of the offshore waters due to a passing\ntropical wave described above. Locally higher winds and seas may\nbe in and near any convection.\nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to\nprevailacross the offshore waters for the next several days, \nexcept becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and \nGuatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure may form \njust west of the area.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on\nHurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Odalys.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 133W due \nto a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest \nportion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of \n140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to 14.9N 101.8W Tue\nmorning, 15.1N 101.7W Tue evening, 15.6N 102.2W Wed morning, \n16.5N 103.2W Wed evening, 17.3N 104.5W Thu morning, and 17.7N \n106.0W Thu evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to 18.6N 109.2W late Fri. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys\nwill move to 14.8N 130.1W Tue morning, 15.1N 129.3W Tue evening,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 128.1W Wed morning, 15.5N \n126.8W Wed evening, 16.1N 125.4W Thu morning, and 16.8N 124.3W \nThu evening. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves \nto 18.3N 122.4W late Fri. Very large seas generated by both \nsystems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming \nweekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very \ndangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over\nthe remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212336304337911815", "issued": "2026-09-22T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212336304337911815"}