{"id": "1212335802460372999", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "msg": "154\nWTPZ41 KNHC 220258\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026\n \nOdalys is showing signs of becoming better organized tonight. Recent \nIR imagery depicts a plume of convection with cooling cloud-top \ntemperatures near the estimated center of the storm, along with a \npersistent convective banding to its south. The latest Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB was 3.5/55 kt, while objective \nintensity estimates are lower, ranging from 37-49 kt. The initial \nintensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory. \n \nThe tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest and is \ncentered between a strong mid-level ridge to the northwest and a \ndeepening mid-level trough moving through the southwestern United \nStates and the Baja California peninsula. A turn toward the north, \nfollowed by a sharp turn toward the east-northeast with a slight \ndecrease in forward speed, is forecast tonight through Tuesday. An \neast-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected through much \nof the remainder of the week as the aforementioned trough deepens \nand stalls over the far eastern Pacific. The track forecast becomes \nmore complicated in the longer range, as some interaction between \nOdalys and Hurricane Polo could occur as it parallels the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast has been adjusted \nslightly to the left of the previous track forecast, and remains \nnear the middle of the forecast guidance envelope. \n\nDecreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature will \nsupport gradual strengthening over the next couple of days, and \nOdalys is forecast to become a hurricane by around 36 h. The \nhurricane is forecast to plateau in intensity around midweek, before \nincreasing dry-air entrainment leads to slow weakening this weekend. \nThe latest NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity \nforecast guidance, and is in close agreement with the HCCA and \nGoogle DeepMind solutions. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/0300Z 14.3N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}