{"msg": "355\nAXNT20 KNHC 220225\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0220 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to \nupper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while \nrelatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in \naddition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form \nduring the next several days. All of these factors are expected to\nlead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the\nCaribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through \nthe 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact \nlocation of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks \nlikely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across\nsouthern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El \nSalvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western \nJamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these\nregions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding \nand landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W/33W from \n05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 22N46W to \n07N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this\ntropical wave from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n13N17W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend\nfrom 11N25W to 10N30W, from 10N33W to 08N48W, and from 07N51W to\n06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N\nbetween 20W and 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1013 mb high pressure\noff Panama City, Florida, prevails across the area generating \nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- \nlevel trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits, along\nan associated surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms over\nthe southwest Gulf under divergent flow aloft. \nFor the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to \nmoderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper- \nlevel low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over \nthe SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two \ndays. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri,\naccompanied with little to no increase in the winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAs described above in the Special Features section, large areas \nof showers and thunderstorms continue to move northward across \nJamaica and into western Cuba. This activity is due to abundant \ntropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side \nof an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to the Yucatan \nChannel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms are noted\nelsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of convection, a\nweak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh \ntrades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to \ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north\nof the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to\nfresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several \ndays. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the \nnext two days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at\n21/2100 UTC or 390 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSW at 3 kt. \nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit \nhurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay.\nA broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf with a\nsmaller lobe over Georgia and northeast Florida. Divergent flow \naloft east of the trough and ample deep layer moisture are \nsupporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the\nBahamas and between the Bahamas and Bermuda west of 65W. Dry,\nsubsident conditions prevail between 50W and 65W, except for a\nsmall area of thunderstorms northeast of Barbados near 16N56W, along\na persistent surface trough. Another upper low is center farther\neast near 26N49W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms\nnear from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W on the northern end of a\ntropical wave. Mostly dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside\nof convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the\nAtlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to \n6 ft are occurring with these trades.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-\nAzores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is promoting gentle\nto moderate trades across forecast waters through Wed night. A \nvigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple\nof days. A cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast\nlate Wed night and extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri \nmorning and from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh \nto strong N winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu\nand Fri, before diminishing on Sat. \nMeanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a \ntropical depression near 31.6N 34.1W Tue morning, then become a \nremnant low and move to 30.7N 36.0W by Tue evening. Winds and seas\nnear the remnant low will diminish as it moves to 30.1N 37.8W Wed\nmorning, 29.7N 39.6W Wed evening, 29.5N 41.2W Thu morning, and \n29.5N 42.5W Thu evening. The remnant low of Fay will change little\nin intensity as it moves to 29.5N 44.3W by late Fri.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212329346718203911", "issued": "2026-09-22T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212329346718203911"}