{"msg": "355\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220021 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nCorrected Remainder of the Area section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.1N 102.7W, \nor about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 \nUTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with \ngusts to 90 kt. Peak seas have spiked up to near 27 ft. Satellite\nimagery shows that Polo has a ragged eye on both visible and \ninfrared images, with very deep convection starting to wrap \naround a broken eyewall. Numerous strong convection is within 90 \nnm of the center in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is within 180 nm of the center in the W quadrant. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 12N to 17N between 99W and 107W. Polo is forecast to \nmaintain its current motion tonight, with a sharp turn toward the\nnorthwest and west- northwest anticipated late Tue into Wed. On \nthe forecast track, the core is Polo is expected to be near or \nsouth of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few \ndays. Polo is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, becoming\na major hurricane by Tue, with further intensification likely \nthough midweek. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 \nto 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across \ncoastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoac\u00e1n \nthrough Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. \nRainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of \nOaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo\nare expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico on Tue. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\n \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.0N 130.0W, or about \n1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California \nat 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 \nkt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. Satellite \nimagery shows that the deep convection, with very cold cloud\ntops has diminished since this morning and the cloud\ntemperatures have warmed. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nis seen from 08N to 16N between 124W and 137W. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is south of 08N and west 130W. An \neastward turn is forecast on Tue, followed by a gradual turn \ntoward the east-northeast by midweek, and toward the northeast by\nthe end of the week. Some strengthening is expected during the \nnext 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by \nmid-week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nOdalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 01N, moving \nwestward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is from 02N to 11N between 83W and 86W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis from northwest Colombia westward to\nacross southern Nicaragua and to 11N86W to 09N89W and to 12N97W.\nIt resumes to the southwest of Polo at 13N108W, to 12N115W and \nto near 16N123W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nfrom 04N to 12N between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate convection \nis within 60 nm south of the trough between 117W-119W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on \nrecently upgraded Hurricane Polo.\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about \n250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC,\nmoving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure \nis 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt\nwith gusts to 90 kt. Aside from conditions associated with \nTropical Storm Polo, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of\nthe Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and \nslight seas are over the Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas are elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen\nas it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum \nsustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to \nnear 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140\nkt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum\nsustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken\nas it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to \nnear 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N \n108.6W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW \nwinds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters \nthrough early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur \noffshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo.\nLooking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the \nsouthwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to \nstrengthen to a hurricane and reach near 20N121W on Sat. Also, an\narea of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions \nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression could form late this week or this weekend while the \nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, \nparallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion.\nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nwill continue over the offshore waters through the period, except \nwinds are expected to become moderate fresh over the offshore waters \nbetween northern Costa Rica and Guatemala beginning Thu night as a \nlow pressure area possibly forms to the south of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec along the monsoon trough.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on \nrecently upgraded Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Odalys.\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about \n250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, \nmoving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure \nis 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt \nwith gusts to 90 kt. Tropical Storm Odalys is near 14.0N 130.0W,\nor about 1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja \nCalifornia at 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. \nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 136W due \nto a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest \nportion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of\n140W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere \nnorth of the monsoon trough. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas remain south of the monsoon trough \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen\nas it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum \nsustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to \nnear 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140\nkt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum\nsustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken\nas it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to \nnear 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N \n108.6W Fri afternoon.\nTropical Storm Odalys is forecast to gradually intensify as it \nmoves to near 14.5N 130.0W late tonight, to near 15.0N 129.5W \nTue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to\nnear 15.2N 128.5W late Tue night, then strengthen to a hurricane\nnear 15.3N 127.2W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds \n70 kt gusts 85 kt, and move to near 16.4N 124.4W Thu afternoon. \nOdalys will begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.9N \n122.4W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure over the area \nwill pretty much maintain gentle to moderate winds. Moderate seas\nare expected with these winds.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212304940998557703", "issued": "2026-09-21T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212304940998557703"}