{"id": "1212262640761012231", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T21:00:00Z", "msg": "060\nWTPZ41 KNHC 212046\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026\n \nAlthough the storm still has not become appreciably better organized \non either geostationary or microwave imagery, a recent ASCAT-C \noverpass showed at least one believable wind vector of near 43 kt. \nThis, along with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB, supports increasing \nthe intensity slightly to 45 kt.  Odalys continues to produce quite \na bit of deep convection, but the highest cloud tops are not as cold \nas they were earlier today, likely a diurnal fluctuation.\n\nThe forward speed has slowed somewhat and the motion estimate is \naround 310/7 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is basically \nunchanged from the previous couple of advisories.  A mid- to \nupper-level trough is forecast to move over the Baja California \npeninsula during the next day or so.  This should result in a sharp \neastward turn of Odalys tomorrow.  The tropical cyclone should then \nbe steered east-northeastward to northeastward by the flow between \nthe trough and a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and \nHurricane Polo.  The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the \nprevious one and lies near the HCCA and GDMI track guidance. Some \ninteraction between Odalys and Polo is possible near the end or \nafter the forecast period.\n\nAccording to the most recent Decay-SHIPS input, the vertical wind \nshear is likely to remain in the light to moderate range for the \nnext several days.  This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean, \nshould allow Odalys to strengthen into a hurricane in 48 hours or \nso.  Somewhat drier air could result in some weakening late in the \nforecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good \nagreement with the HCCA corrected model consensus. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/2100Z 14.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}