{"id": "1212260582806814727", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T21:00:00Z", "msg": "695\nWTNT41 KNHC 212036\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026\n\nStrong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting \nFay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well \neast of the well-defined low-level center.  Scatterometer data \nsuggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which \nwill be the advisory intensity estimate.\n\nGlobal model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will \nshift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so.  This will \nlikely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow.  \nHowever, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should \nbe ingesting drier air during the next few days.  This is consistent \nwith simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which \nshows the system losing most of its associated deep convection \nduring the next 48 hours or so.  Therefore the NHC forecast shows \nFay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this \nevent could occur even sooner than that.\n\nFay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of \na mid-level high.  The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward \nand then westward around the southern portion of the high until \ndissipation.  The official track forecast is similar to the \nprevious few NHC forecasts.  This is also in good agreement with \nthe latest GFS prediction.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/2100Z 33.1N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 32.4N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 31.3N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  23/1800Z 29.9N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  24/0600Z 29.6N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  24/1800Z 29.5N  41.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/1800Z 29.6N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}