{"msg": "350\nAXPZ20 KNHC 211606\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1545 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 13.9N 129.3W, or about \n1230 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California\nat 21/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 \nkt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are to near Seas are peaking \nnear 17 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Odalys has become \nsignificantly better organized this morning. Numerous strong \nconvection is seen from 09N to 14N between 126W and 135W. \nScattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N \nbetween 126W and 133W. An eastward turn is forecast on Tue, \nfollowed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast by midweek, \nand toward the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual \nstrengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast to become a \nhurricane by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nOdalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Polo is centered near 15.4N 103.4W, or about \n220 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/1500 UTC,\nmoving east at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt \nwith gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft.  Satellite \nimagery indicates that Polo is undergoing significant rapid \nintensification. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted \nwithin 120 nm of the center, except 180 nm in the NE quadrant. A \nslow eastward or southeastward motion is expected through \ntonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or \nnorthwest is expected by late Tue. On the forecast track, the \ncore of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern \nMexico during the next few days. Polo is expected to continue to \nrapidly intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon and a \nmajor hurricane on Tue, with further intensification likely \nthough midweek. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 \nto 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across \ncoastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoac\u00e1n \nthrough Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. \nRainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of \nOaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.\n \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nPolo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 01N, moving \nwestward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 02N to 12N between 84W and 90W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis from northwest Colombia westward to\nacross southern Nicaragua and to 11N86W to 09N89W and to 12N97W.\nIt resumes to the southwest of Polo at 13N108W to 12N115W and \nto 16N123W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within \n240 nm north of the trough between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough \nbetween 85W-88W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on \nTropical Storm Polo.\nTropical Storm Polo is near 15.4N 103.4W, or about 220 nm south-\nsoutheast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/1500 UTC, moving east at 4 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.\nAside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, \nmoderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California \npeninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the \nGulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nare elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Polo will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.3N 102.8W this evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 86 kt gusts 105 kt, move to near 15.1N 102.3W Tue morning, \nto near 15.4N 102.3W Tue evening, 16.0N 102.8W to near Wed \nmorning, to near 16.8N 103.6W Wed evening, and to near 17.6N \n104.8W Thu morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 18.6N 107.8W early on Fri Otherwise, moderate to \nlocally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja \nCalifornia waters through early Fri morning when conditions in \nBaja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to \nthe proximity of Polo. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion.\nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail through Thu night across the offshores. Winds and\nseas will build across in the offshores between Costa Rica and\nGuatemala early Fri morning as a low pressure develops within \nthe monsoon. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on \nTropical Storm Odalys and on Tropical Polo. \nTropical Storm Polo is near 15.4N 103.4W, or about 220 nm south-\nsoutheast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/1500 UTC, moving east at 4 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.\nTropical Storm Odalys is near 13.9N 129.3W, or about 1230 nm \nwest-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/1500 \nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with \ngusts to 50 kt.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 134W. \nGentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere\nnorth of the monsoon trough. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas remain south of the monsoon trough \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Polo will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.3N 102.8W this evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 86 kt gusts 105 kt, move to near 15.1N 102.3W Tue morning, \nto near 15.4N 102.3W Tue evening, 16.0N 102.8W to near Wed \nmorning, to near 16.8N 103.6W Wed evening, and to near 17.6N \n104.8W Thu morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 18.6N 107.8W early on Fri.\nOdalys is forecast to move to near1 4.6N 130.0W this evening, to\nnear 15.2N 129.9W Tue morning, 15.5N 128.9W Tue evening, 15.6N \n127.7W Wed morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 15.8N \n126.4W Wed evening with maximums sustained winds 65 kt gusts \n80 kt. Odalys is then forecast to reach near 16.4N 124.8W Thu \nmorning, and change little in intensity as it moves to near \n17.7N 122.6W early on Fri. Otherwise, high pressure over the\narea will pretty much maintain gentle to moderate winds.\nModerate seas are expected with these winds.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212207492428791815", "issued": "2026-09-21T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212207492428791815"}