{"id": "1212192927522357255", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T15:00:00Z", "msg": "687\nWTNT41 KNHC 211452\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026\n\nFay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical \nwind shear.  Practically all of the deep convection is confined to \na band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the \neast of the well-defined low-level center.  Using a blend of \nsubjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory \nintensity is reduced to 45 kt.\n\nGlobal model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting \neastward from Fay during the next day or two.  This evolution would \nallow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated \nby the Decay SHIPS model.  However, the model guidance also \nindicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to \nmid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening.  \nSimulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep \nconvection mostly dissipated during the next few days.  Therefore \nthe official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone \ndegenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours.\n\nFay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side \nof a mid-level high.  Over the next several days, the cyclone \nis expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move \naround the southeastern and southern periphery of the high.  This \nshould keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation \nlater in the week.  Not much change has been made to the previous \nNHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google \nDeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/1500Z 33.3N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 32.6N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 31.6N  33.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 30.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 30.0N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  24/0000Z 29.4N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  24/1200Z 29.3N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/1200Z 29.3N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}