{"id": "1212192244730003463", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T15:00:00Z", "msg": "654\nWTPZ41 KNHC 211448\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026\n\nThe storm has not become significantly better organized on \nsatellite imagery so far this morning.  A large burst of very deep \nconvection is occurring near or a little south of the estimated \ncenter with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Some convective \nbanding features are evident over the southern through eastern \nperiphery of the system.  Objective intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS using geostationary and microwave imagery indicate \nthat the intensity remains near 40 kt.\n\nSince the center is not clearly defined on satellite imagery at \nthis time, the motion is uncertain but is estimated to be 310/10 \nkt, nearly the same as in the previous advisory.  A mid- to\nupper-level trough is forecast to move over the Baja California \npeninsula during the next day or two.  This will cause Odalys to \nturn sharply eastward, and steer the system east-northeastward to \nnortheastward through the middle of the week between the flow of the \ntrough and a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and Tropical \nStorm Polo. The latest NHC track forecast has again been shifted to \nthe right of the previous forecast, and lies near the HCCA and GDMI \ntrack aids.\n \nOdalys is continuing to be influenced by northerly vertical wind \nshear.  The Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates some relaxation of the \nshear in a day or so while the system remains over warm sea surface\ntemperatures and within a moist environment. This should allow for\nsome gradual strengthening during the next few days.  The official \nforecast remains at the high end of the intensity model guidance \nenvelope, and is similar to the latest corrected consensus model, \nHCCA, prediction.  This is about the same as in the previous NHC \nforecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/1500Z 13.9N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}