{"msg": "275\nAXPZ20 KNHC 210951\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0950 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 13.5N 128.7W at 21/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate \nto strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 125W and 136W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found \nelsewhere from 01N to 16N between 118W and 138W. Gradual \nstrengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast to become a \nhurricane by mid-week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nOdalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Polo is centered near 15.5N 103.8W at 21/0900\nUTC, moving northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Numerous moderate and \nisolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N between 100W and \n106W. However, spiral rainbands of moderate to strong convection\nare across the SW Mexico coastal and offshore waters. On the \nforecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast\nof southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Rapid \nintensification is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a \nhurricane later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSeventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, moving westward near \n5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends \nfrom 02N to 15 E of 98W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 14N92W. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N\nW of 134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical \nStorm Polo.\nTropical Storm Polo is near 15.5N 103.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is\nmoving northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. \nAside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, \nmoderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California \npeninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the \nGulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nare elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Polo will move to 15.5N 103.1W this afternoon,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 102.5W Tue morning, 15.3N \n102.0W Tue afternoon, 15.9N 102.4W Wed morning, 16.6N 103.0W Wed \nafternoon, and 17.5N 104.1W Thu morning. Polo will change little \nin intensity as it moves near 18.7N 106.6W early Fri. Moderate \nto locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja \nCalifornia waters through early Fri morning when conditions in \nBaja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to \nthe proximity of TS Polo. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion.\nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail through Thu night across the offshores. Winds and\nseas will build across in the offshores between Costa Rica and\nGuatemala early Fri morning as a low pressure develops within \nthe monsoon. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm\nOdalys and Tropical Polo. \nTropical Storm Polo is near 15.5N 103.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is\nmoving northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Tropical\nStorm Odalys is near 13.5N 128.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving \nnorthwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts \nto 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 134W. \nGentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere N \nof the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas, prevail. \nFor the forecast, Polo will move to 15.5N 103.1W this afternoon,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 102.5W Tue morning, 15.3N \n102.0W Tue afternoon, 15.9N 102.4W Wed morning, 16.6N 103.0W Wed \nafternoon, and 17.5N 104.1W Thu morning. Polo will change little \nin intensity as it moves near 18.7N 106.6W early Fri. \nOdalys will move to 14.4N 129.7W this afternoon, 15.2N\n130.3W Tue morning, 15.4N 130.0W Tue afternoon, 15.5N 129.1W Wed\nmorning, 15.6N 128.0W Wed afternoon, and strengthen to a\nhurricane near 15.9N 126.8W Thu morning. Odalys will change\nlittle in intensity as it moves near 17.2N 124.5W early Fri. \nOtherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will \nprevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212133794077442055", "issued": "2026-09-21T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212133794077442055"}